Projections
Constrained Projections
Med. hotspot
Spaghetti Plots
RMSE
Observational metadata
Info
Plot size (%)
Diagnostic
Projections
General box plots
Single box plots
Observational datasets evaluation
Trend bias
Variable
tas
pr
Season
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Reference dataset (only for Proj. and Valid. diag.)
JRA55
ERA5
CRU
BerkeleyEarth
GPCC025x025_v8
EOBS_v20
Scenario
RCP-8.5/SSP5-8.5
RCP-4.5/SSP2-4.5
RCP-2.6/SSP1-2.6
JRA55 (tas, pr, psl, tos)
ERA5 (tas, sfcWind, psl)
CRU (tas, pr)
EOBS_v20 (tas, pr)
GPCC025x025_v8 (pr)
BerkeleyEarth (tas)
Projections for the Mediterranean region (10ºW, 40ºE, 30ºN, 45ºN) for versions 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and three future radiative forcing scenarios. Additionally, validation against observations and reanalysis; comparisons between the trends and climatologies of the observations and reanalysis datasets; and boxplot of past and future trend spreads can be displayed. (Note that the timeseries shading is 1.64 times the standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble).
Ensemble projected changes weighted by performance and inter-member independence. Select "Shape Parameters Table" to display a table with all diagnostic's performance and independence shape parameters.
Plot Type
Projections
General box plots
Weight distribution by model
Weight distribution by member
Correlations by model
Correlations by member
Variable
tas
pr
Season
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Scenario
RCP-8.5/SSP5-8.5
RCP-4.5/SSP2-4.5
RCP-2.6/SSP1-2.6
Project (only for weight distribution plots)
CMIP5
CMIP6
Shape Parameters Table
Plot size (%)
Display the difference between the future global climate change and the future Mediterranean (land-only) climate change. Useful to ilustrate how the region is expected to warm at a higher pace than the global mean while receiving less precipitation.
Project
CMIP5
CMIP6
Variable
tas
pr
pr:tas
Scenario
RCP-8.5/SSP5-8.5
RCP-4.5/SSP2-4.5
RCP-2.6/SSP1-2.6
Product
maps
y2y scatter combined scenarios
subtropical belt signal
year-to-year scatter
Season (for the year-to-year scatter Product)
DJF
JJA
ANNUAL
Precipitation against global mean
Plot size (%)
Single member timeseries. NDJFM for sfcWind
Project
CMIP5
CMIP6
HighResMIP
Variable
tas
pr
Season
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Scenario
RCP-8.5/SSP5-8.5
RCP-4.5/SSP2-4.5
RCP-2.6/SSP1-2.6
Plot size (%)
Normalized Root Mean Squared Error diagnostics heatmap of models against two observational datasets. Normalization is done against the ensemble diagnostic median
Project
CMIP5
CMIP6
HighResMIP
Intercomparison
Plot size (%)
--
Metadata
Station density
Dataset
gpcc-v8
eobsv20
cru-v4.04
Plot size (%)
Reference Datasets
tas: CRU v4.04, ERA5, JRA-55, WFDE5 and E-OBS v20
pr: CRU v4.04, GPCC v8, JRA-55, WFDE5 and E-OBS v20
tos: JRA-55, ERA5 and ERSST_v5
sfcWind: ERA5, MERRA_v2 and WFDE5
psl: JRA-55 and ERA5
Models
CMIP5
historical:RCP2.6
BCC-CSM1-1
BCC-CSM1-1-M
BNU-ESM
CanESM2 (5 members)
CCSM4 (5 members)
CESM1-CAM5 (3 members)
CNRM-CM5
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 members)
EC-Earth (2 members)
FIO-ESM (3 members)
GFDL-CM3
GFDL-ESM2G
GFDL-ESM2M
GISS-E2-H
GISS-E2-R
HadGEM2-AO
HadGEM2-ES (4 members)
IPSL-CM5A-LR (4 members)
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC-ESM
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
MIROC5 (2 members)
MPI-ESM-LR (3 members)
MPI-ESM-MR
NorESM1-M
historical:RCP4.5
ACCESS1-0
ACCESS1-3
BCC-CSM1-1
BCC-CSM1-1-M
BNU-ESM
CanESM2 (5 members)
CCSM4 (5 members)
CESM1-CAM5 (3 members)
CMCC-CM
CMCC-CMS
CNRM-CM5
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 members)
EC-Earth (3 members)
FIO-ESM (3 members)
GFDL-CM3
GFDL-ESM2G
GFDL-ESM2M
GISS-E2-H
GISS-E2-H-CC
GISS-E2-R
GISS-E2-R-CC
HadGEM2-AO
HadGEM2-CC
HadGEM2-ES (4 members)
INMCM4
IPSL-CM5B-LR
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC-ESM
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
MIROC5 (2 members)
MPI-ESM-LR (3 members)
MPI-ESM-MR
NorESM1-M
historical:RCP8.5
ACCESS1-0
ACCESS1-3
BCC-CSM1-1
BCC-CSM1-1-M
BNU-ESM
CanESM2 (5 members)
CCSM4 (6 members)
CESM1-BGC
CESM1-CAM5 (3 members)
CMCC-CESM
CMCC-CM
CMCC-CMS
CNRM-CM5 (5 members)
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 members)
EC-Earth (4 members)
FGOALS-s2 (3 members)
FGOALS-g2
FIO-ESM (3 members)
GFDL-CM3
GFDL-ESM2G
GFDL-ESM2M
GISS-E2-H (2 members)
GISS-E2-H-CC
GISS-E2-R (2 members)
GISS-E2-R-CC
HadGEM2-AO
HadGEM2-CC
HadGEM2-ES (4 members)
inmcm4
IPSL-CM5A-LR (4 members)
IPSL-CM5A-MR
IPSL-CM5B-LR
MIROC-ESM
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
MIROC5 (2 members)
MPI-ESM-LR (3 members)
MPI-ESM-MR
MPI-CGCM3
NorESM1-M
CMIP6
historical:SSP1-2.6
ACCESS-CM2
ACCESS-ESM1-5 (3 members)
AWI-CM-1-1-MR
BCC-CSM2-MR
CanESM5 (10 members)
CanESM5-CanOE (3 members)
CESM2
CESM2-WACCM
CNRM-CM6-1 (6 members)
CNRM-CM6-1-HR
CNRM-ESM2-1
FGOALS-g3
FGOALS-f3-L
FIO-ESM-2-0 (3 members)
GFDL-ESM4
GISS-E2-1-G
HadGEM3-GC31-LL
INM-CM4-8
INM-CM5-0
IPSL-CM6A-LR (5 members)
KACE-1-0-G (2 members)
MIROC-ES2L
MIROC6 (3 members)
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10 members)
MRI-ESM2-0
NESM3 (2 members)
NorESM2-LM
NorESM2-MM
UKESM1-0-LL (5 members)
historical:SSP2-4.5
ACCESS-CM2
ACCESS-ESM1-5 (3 members)
AWI-CM-1-1-MR
BCC-CSM2-MR
CanESM5 (10 members)
CanESM5-CanOE (3 members)
CESM2
CESM2-WACCM
CNRM-CM6-1 (3 members)
CNRM-CM6-1-HR
CNRM-ESM2-1 (5 members)
FGOALS-g3
FGOALS-f3-L
FIO-ESM-2-0 (3 members)
GFDL-ESM4
GISS-E2-1-G
HadGEM3-GC31-LL
INM-CM4-8
INM-CM5-0
IPSL-CM6A-LR (11 members)
KACE-1-0-G (3 members)
MIROC-ES2L
MIROC6 (3 members)
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10 members)
MRI-ESM2-0
NESM3 (2 members)
NorESM2-LM
NorESM2-MM
UKESM1-0-LL (5 members)
historical:SSP5-8.5
ACCESS-CM2
ACCESS-ESM1-5 (3 members)
AWI-CM-1-1-MR
BCC-CSM2-MR
CanESM5 (10 members)
CanESM5-CanOE (3 members)
CESM2
CESM2-WACCM
CMCC-CM2-SR5
CNRM-CM6-1
CNRM-CM6-1-HR
CNRM-ESM2-1
FGOALS-g3
FGOALS-f3-L
FIO-ESM-2-0 (3 members)
GFDL-ESM4
GISS-E2-1-G
HadGEM3-GC31-LL (3 members)
INM-CM4-8
INM-CM5-0
IPSL-CM6A-LR
KACE-1-0-G
MIROC-ES2L
MIROC6 (3 members)
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10 members)
MRI-ESM2-0
NESM3 (2 members)
NorESM2-LM
NorESM2-MM
UKESM1-0-LL (5 members)
HighResMIP
historical:SSP5-8.5
CESM1-CAM5-SE-LR (aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km)
CESM1-CAM5-SE-HR (aerosol: 25 km, atmos: 25 km, atmosChem: 25 km, land: 25 km, ocean: 10 km, ocnBgchem: 10 km, seaIce: 10 km)
CMCC-CM2-SR5 (aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km)
CMCC-CM2-HR4 (aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
CMCC-CM2-VHR4 (aerosol: 25 km, atmos: 25 km, land: 25 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
CNRM-CM6-1 (aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km)
CNRM-CM6-1-HR (aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
EC-Earth3P (atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km)
EC-Earth3P-HR (atmos: 50 km, land: 50 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
HadGEM3-GC31-HH (aerosol: 50 km, atmos: 50 km, land: 50 km, ocean: 10 km, seaIce: 10 km)
HadGEM3-GC31-HM (aerosol: 50 km, atmos: 50 km, land: 50 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
HadGEM3-GC31-MM (aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km)
HadGEM3-GC31-LL ( aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km)