This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision | ||
cmip6_discussion [2015/08/26 09:15] fdoblas |
cmip6_discussion [2016/10/25 10:48] (current) fmassonn |
||
---|---|---|---|
Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
===== Introduction ===== | ===== Introduction ===== | ||
- | An explanation of all the MIPs that have been validated for CMIP6 can be found in [[ftp:// | + | An explanation of all the MIPs that have been validated for CMIP6 can be found in {{:cmip6-endorsedmips_summary_150819_sent.pdf|pdf}}. |
The experiments that will be done by CFUers are described in the following section. There are five sets of CMIP6 experiments. All the CFUers are encouraged to indicate what role they will play in the selected MIPs, especially in the context of the projects they are involved in. | The experiments that will be done by CFUers are described in the following section. There are five sets of CMIP6 experiments. All the CFUers are encouraged to indicate what role they will play in the selected MIPs, especially in the context of the projects they are involved in. | ||
Line 9: | Line 9: | ||
==== DECK ==== | ==== DECK ==== | ||
The DECK which will serve as an entry card for CMIP will consist of the following four simulations: | The DECK which will serve as an entry card for CMIP will consist of the following four simulations: | ||
- | - AMIP simulation (~1979-2014) | + | - AMIP simulation (~1979-2014) |
- | - Pre-industrial control simulation | + | - Pre-industrial control simulation |
- | - 1%/yr CO2 increase | + | - 1%/yr CO2 increase |
- | - Abrupt 4xCO2 run | + | - Abrupt 4xCO2 run not run by us but other members of the EC-Earth consortium |
In addition, the CMIP6 Historical Simulation has been added which will serve as the entry card for CMIP6 and as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs. The historical simulation (1850-2014) will use the specific forcings consistent with CMIP6 which will be finalized on the timescales laid out in slide 10. The CMIP6 Historical Simulation has been introduced in addition to the DECK to better separate CMIP from a specific Phase of CMIP (see slide 4 for illustration and slide 5 for the main criteria for DECK and Historical Phase X). Both DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation should be run for each model configuration used in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs. Future climate change scenarios will be run as part of ScenarioMIP with a Tier 1 that includes three different scenarios, spanning different possible futures. | In addition, the CMIP6 Historical Simulation has been added which will serve as the entry card for CMIP6 and as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs. The historical simulation (1850-2014) will use the specific forcings consistent with CMIP6 which will be finalized on the timescales laid out in slide 10. The CMIP6 Historical Simulation has been introduced in addition to the DECK to better separate CMIP from a specific Phase of CMIP (see slide 4 for illustration and slide 5 for the main criteria for DECK and Historical Phase X). Both DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation should be run for each model configuration used in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs. Future climate change scenarios will be run as part of ScenarioMIP with a Tier 1 that includes three different scenarios, spanning different possible futures. | ||
+ | |||
+ | The climate prediction group will run 5 members of historical simulation for comparison with the decadal predictions that will be run within DCPP (see below). | ||
Further details can be found in the following presentation: | Further details can be found in the following presentation: | ||
==== DCPP ==== | ==== DCPP ==== | ||
- | Details of the DCPP experiments can be found in [[ftp:// | + | Details of the DCPP experiments can be found in this document {{:dcpp_components_30mar15.pdf|pdf}}. DCPP is divided into 3 components: |
* Component A: hindcasts | * Component A: hindcasts | ||
* Component B: forecasts | * Component B: forecasts | ||
* Component C: predictability, | * Component C: predictability, | ||
+ | |||
+ | The climate prediction group will run 5 members of hindcasts and 5 members of forecasts. The other 5 members should be run | ||
+ | by another member of the EC-Earth consortum (KNMI as for CMIP5?). | ||
Under DCPP, Martin Ménégoz will perform parts of C3, the experiments that focus on the volcanic effect on decadal prediction. These experiments are very close to experiments performed in the context of SPECS and are coordinated with VolMIP. They consist in repeating the decadal hindcasts without the volcanic forcing of large eruptions. | Under DCPP, Martin Ménégoz will perform parts of C3, the experiments that focus on the volcanic effect on decadal prediction. These experiments are very close to experiments performed in the context of SPECS and are coordinated with VolMIP. They consist in repeating the decadal hindcasts without the volcanic forcing of large eruptions. | ||
Line 30: | Line 35: | ||
==== VolMIP ==== | ==== VolMIP ==== | ||
- | The aim and the design of the experiments planned for VolMIP can be found in [[http:// | + | The aim and the design of the experiments planned for VolMIP can be found in [[http:// |
+ | |||
+ | NB1: to initialize volc-pinatubo-full, | ||
+ | |||
+ | NB2: volc-pinatubo-ini is common with DCPP | ||
Local contact: M. Ménégoz | Local contact: M. Ménégoz | ||
Line 40: | Line 49: | ||
Some initial ideas on how to generate an SST and sea-ice forcing set for the AMIP-style runs (including the future part to 2050 and beyond) has been posted to the [[https:// | Some initial ideas on how to generate an SST and sea-ice forcing set for the AMIP-style runs (including the future part to 2050 and beyond) has been posted to the [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | The climate prediction group will run a 1950-2050 coupled simulation. | ||
Local contact: V. Guemas | Local contact: V. Guemas | ||
Line 57: | Line 68: | ||
* Tier 2 (additional experiments): | * Tier 2 (additional experiments): | ||
+ | The climate prediction group will contribute with 5 members of SSP2-4.5 for a comparison with the decadal predictions that will be run under DCPP. | ||
The final ScenarioMIP proposal for CMIP6 endorsement can be found in the following document: | The final ScenarioMIP proposal for CMIP6 endorsement can be found in the following document: | ||
Line 66: | Line 78: | ||
Documented by J. García-Serrano | Documented by J. García-Serrano | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== SIMIP ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | The Sea Ice MIP (SIMIP, | ||
+ | |||
+ | SIMIP has the ultimate goal to improve understanding about sea ice as a component of the complex coupled climate system: how does it respond to external forcing? how does it feed back? what is the role of internal versus forced variability of sea ice parameters? | ||
+ | |||
+ | The SIMIP is organized around three guiding set of questions: | ||
+ | |||
+ | (1) How can we explain model spread in simulating sea ice characteristics? | ||
+ | |||
+ | (2) How can we explain model biases? What part of the mismatch is truly related to model deficiencies, | ||
+ | |||
+ | (3) To what extent can we predict sea ice? What is the potential predictability of sea ice? What is the quality of initial conditions currently available? How to generate ensembles that reflect our uncertainty at best? | ||
+ | |||
+ | BSC-ES is contributing to SIMIP through F. Massonnet being a member of the SIMIP-panel (lead by D. Notz and A. Jahn) but also by the provision of initial sea ice states generated by the ensemble Kalman filter with EC-Earth. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Documented by F. Massonnet. |