working_groups:climate_prediction []

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====== Climate Variability and Change ======

===== Description of the area =====

The Climate Prediction group aims at developing regional and global climate prediction capability for time scales ranging from a few weeks to a few decades into the future (sub-seasonal to decadal climate prediction). This objective relies on expanding our understanding of the climate processes through a deep analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of state-of-the-art climate forecast systems in comparison with the most up-to-date observational datasets, and on exploiting these detailed analyses to refine the representation of climate processes in our climate forecast systems and as well as their initialization. Although our primary tool is the EC-Earth European climate model (http://www.ec-earth.org/), we also make frequent use of large multi-model databases made available in the context of cooperative international projects (CMIP, SPECS, NMME ...) for process analysis. To achieve our objectives, we rely on a wide variety of expertise, both in terms of on climate processes and regions within our group: from the stratosphere down to the deep ocean and from tropical to polar latitudes, as well as on expertise on climate modelling and data assimilation. We have contributed in the past and plan to continue contributing to near-operational climate prediction exercises: on decadal (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc) and on seasonal (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) time scales.

=== Improvement of climate prediction systems: toward more realistic model processes ===
 * Inclusion and/or testing in EC-Earth of new model components (biogeochemistry, vegetation, aerosols, new alternative sea ice model) or sub-grid cell parameterizations (ocean mixing, sea ice and snow cover surface scheme for albedo, soil hydrological cycling …) developed by other research centers to account for additional potential predictability sources.

 * Tuning of sub-grid cell parameterisations (sea ice albedo, accretion and strength, ocean mixing and diffusion ...) in EC-Earth to reduce the climate prediction drift and improve the prediction skill.

 * Generation of ground-breaking high resolution climate predictions and assessment of the added-value from such a resolution increase (from 0.25 down to 0.08 degrees for the ocean, 40 to 25 km for the atmosphere) in terms of prediction drift and prediction skill.

=== Improvement of climate prediction systems: data assimilation and initialisation ===
 * Use of a large set of ocean and atmospheric reanalyses (physical combination of observational data and model outputs) produced by other research centers and generation of in-house ensemble sea ice reconstructions to obtain a large variety of initial conditions (IC) for climate predictions to be compared in their merits and limitations.

 * Comparison of the performance of various initialisation techniques (full-field and different variants of anomaly initialisation).

 * Benefit assessment of weakly coupled observational data assimilation (through nudging and Ensemble Kalman Filter) in obtaining initial climate conditions.

=== Forecast quality assessment: attribution and sources of predictability ===
 * Assessment of the state-of-the-art climate forecast performance from a large set of multi-model databases using multifaceted forecast quality assessment in the presence of climate drift for a large range of variables (continental temperatures and precipitation, tropical cyclones, weather regimes, climate variability modes, heat waves, ocean circulation, sea ice conditions …) to inform the Earth Sciences service group.

 * Production of sensitivity experiments with EC-Earth (to new model components, different sources of initial conditions, radiative forcings, resolution, HPC plaform) to highlight sources of skill (land surface, soil moisture and sea ice initialization, volcanic, natural and anthropogenic aerosols, snow cover, ocean heat contents and transports ...) and estimation of the contribution of these sources to the prediction skill.

 * Detailed analysis of successful climate predictions from multi-model databases for attribution purposes (extreme events including droughts and heat waves, recent global warming hiatus, Arctic summer sea ice lows and Antarctic winter sea ice highs) and sensitivity experiments with EC-Earth to understand the physical mechanisms explaining these events.

=== Forecast quality assessment: diagnosis of climate forecast weaknesses ===
 * Investigation of the mechanisms leading to climate prediction drift (through heat, salt, momentum, energy budgets …) and the relations between the drift and the prediction skill (through a statistical analysis).

 * Investigation of the causes which can explain the failure of Earth systems to reproduce particular climate events in forecasts.

 * Feedbacks toward climate forecast system development: information about the sources of model errors and suggestions of ways to improve the model quality.

===== List of people involved =====


==== Markus Donat ====
Group co-leader\\
Interests: climate extremes, climate variability\\
Interests: Understanding driving mechanisms and predictability of climate extremes\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/ortega-montilla-pablo | Pablo Ortega]]\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/amaral-ramos-arthur-eduardo|Arthur Eduardo Amaral Ramos]]\\ 

==== Arndt Meier ====
{{:research_groups_and_staff:arndt.jpg?100|}}
Established Researcher\\
Fields of expertise: earth system modelling, dynamic vegetation models, remote sensing from ground and space, satellite validation, land use change mapping from space, software engineering, university teaching\\
Interests: sustainable earth, greenhouse gases, climate change, climate prediction, science that makes you think and sometimes stand in awe, nature, inspire others, quantum physics,  spirituality\\

==== Bianca Mezzina ====
PhD Student\\
Thesis (provisional) title: //ENSO influence on the North Atlantic-European winter: mechanisms and implications for predictability// \\
Interests: food, sci-fi, koalas


[[https://www.bsc.es/moreno-chamarro-eduardo|Eduardo Moreno Chamarro]]\\

==== Eleftheria Exarchou ====
Post-Doc\\
Interests: Ocean modeller, seasonal forecast.

[[https://www.bsc.es/yilmaz-elif | Elif Yilmaz]]\\

==== Etienne Tourigny ====
{{:working_groups:members:etourign.jpeg?100 |}}
Post Doc\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4628-1461|ORCID profile]]\\
Interests: carbon cycle, vegetation & wildfire modelling, climate change, climate prediction, generation of initial conditions

\\

==== Isabel Martinez Cano ====
{{:working_groups:picture_imcano.jpg?100 |}} 
Post Doc\\ 
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Isabel-Martinez-Cano|Research Gate]]\\ 
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4205-8596|ORCID profile]]\\ 
Interests: land modeling, vegetation dynamics, carbon cycle, natural disturbance, climate change

\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/lopez-marti-ferran |Ferran Lopez Marti]]

==== Joan Llort ====
Post Doc\\
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joan_Llort|Personal page]]\\
Interests: marine biogeochemistry, ocean meso- and submeso-scale dynamics, plankton, biogeochemical modelling, iron, carbon cycle, Southern Ocean \\

==== Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro ====
Juan de la Cierva Post Doc\\
Webpage: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5375-0639 \\
Interests: cryosphere-climate interactions, atmospheric dynamics, extreme events, sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, climate model initialization, aerosol effects on climate. 

==== Martí Galí Tàpias ====
{{:working_groups:marti_greenedge_lowres.jpg?100 |}} 
"La Caixa Junior Leader" Post-Doc\\
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marti_Gali_Tapias|ResearchGate profile]]\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5587-1271|ORCID profile]]\\
[[https://publons.com/researcher/1496551/marti-gali/|publons profile]]\\
Interests: ocean biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, plankton, sulfur cycle, biogenic aerosols, light-driven biogeochemistry, vertical mixing
\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/bernardello-raffaele|Raffaele Bernardello ]]\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/mahmood-rashed | Rashed Mahmood]]\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/bilbao-roberto| Roberto Bilbao]]\\



==== Valentina Sicardi ====
Post-doc\\
Interests: Ocean biogeochemistry

==== Vladimir Lapin ====
Post-doc\\
Interests: initialization and data assimilation, sea ice, ocean tides and mixing\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/levine-xavier|Xavier Levine]]


==== Yohan Ruprich-Robert ====
Marie Curie Post-Doc\\
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yohan_Ruprich-Robert/|Personal page]]\\
Focuses: Climate variability and predictability (mainly at interannual to multi-decadal timescales), large scale ocean and atmosphere dynamic processes, ocean-atmopshere interactions.


==== Aude Carreric ====
{{:working_groups:aude_carreric.jpeg?100 |}} 
Post Doc\\
[[http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aude_Carreric|ResearchGate profile]]\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6385-5327|ORCID profile]]\\
Interests: Inter-annual variability in the tropics, particularly ENSO and its diversity, Low-frequency variability of climatic modes, Air-sea interactions, Impact of climate change on large-scale dynamics \\

==== Carlos Delgado-Torres ====
{{:working_groups:carlosdelgadotorres.jpg?nolink&100 |}}
PhD student\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1737-4212|ORCID profile]] \\
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Carlos-Delgado-Torres-2|Researchgate profile]] \\
Interests: Climate prediction, Climate services, Weather regimes, Forecast quality assessment, Climate extremes, Software development.


==== Veronica Martin Gomez ====
Post-doc\\
Interests: Climate variability and predictability, interbasins connections, seasonal forecast \\

==== Paolo De Luca ====
{{:working_groups:img_6567 2.JPG?100 |}}
Recognised Researcher\\
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0416-4622\\
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=nl&user=0QoyXsgAAAAJ\\
BSC Web: https://www.bsc.es/de-luca-paolo#\\
Interests: weather and climate extremes, compound events, dynamical systems, exoplanets, atmopsheric dynamics.
\\
==== Monalisa Sahoo ====
Postdoc \\
Interests: Climate variability, climate extremes, South Asian monsoon dynamics.\\

==== Amanda Frigola ====
{{:working_groups:amanda_frigola.jpg?100 |}}
Post Doc\\
[[https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=uw7oDRAAAAAJ&hl=es|Google scholar]]\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4681-7476|ORCID profile]]\\
Interests: oceanography, North Atlantic, mesoscale eddies, high resolution modelling, Miocene, paleoclimate, MioMIP \\

==== Alejandro Jiménez ====
Master Student\\
Interests: climate prediction, variability and extremes.\\

==== Daria Kuznetsova ====
Research engineer\\
Interests: Climate variability, modeling, developing of diagnostics\\

==== Bernat Jiménez Esteve ====
{{:working_groups:bernat_jimenez.jpeg?100 |}}
Postdoc Researcher\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2706-5309|ORCID profile]]\\
[[https://scholar.google.es/citations?user=U0XZzqAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao|Google Scholar]]\\
Interests: General Circulation, Atmospheric teleconnections, Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, High-resolution modeling, midlatitude atmospheric dynamics, Heatwaves. \\

\\

=====Collaborators=====
==== Deborah Verfaillie ====
{{:working_groups:members:photo_verfaillie_hd_decoupe.jpg?100 |}} 
Post-Doc\\
[[https://sites.google.com/site/deborahverfaillie/|Personal page]]\\
Interests: decadal climate prediction, forecast quality assessment, cryosphere-climate interactions (glaciers, snow cover), subantarctic and Antarctica

\\

==== Rubén Cruz García ====
{{working_groups:members:ruben.jpg?100 |}}
PhD student\\
Interests: Sea ice, seasonal and interannual forecast.\\ 
Master Thesis: http://digibug.ugr.es/handle/10481/39110#.VnKkvzIgcWM \\


==== Rachel White ====
Marie-Curie Post Doc\\
[[https://atmos.washington.edu/~rachel/|Personal page]]\\
Interests: atmospheric dynamics, Rossby waves (sources and propagation), extreme events, sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, tropospheric jet variability, troposphere-stratosphere interactions

==== Martin Ménégoz ====
[[http://martinmenegoz.neowordpress.fr|Personal page]]\\
Post-doc\\
Interests: Aerosols and snow cover in climate forecasts

==== François Massonnet ====
[[http://www.climate.be/u/fmasson|Personal page]]\\
Post-doc\\
Interests: Sea ice, data assimilation, polar prediction


==== Danila Volpi ====
Post-doc. \\
Interests: Initialization of decadal predictions. \\
PhD thesis: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ivh0qpdasang1rf/Thesis.pdf?dl=0


==== Neven S. Fučkar ====
Juan de la Cierva-incorporación postdoctoral fellow\\
Interests: climate dynamics and prediction, sea ice, ocean role in climate, intraseasonal-to-decadal predictions, statistical methods and bias correction\\

==== Javier Garcia-Serrano ====

==== Virginie Guemas ====
{{:working_groups:members:virginieguemas.jpg?100 |}} 
[[http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/spip.php?article772&lang=fr|Personal page]]\\
Head of the climate prediction group \\
Ramon y Cajal Fellow (Highly competitive national grant : 2% success rate) \\
Interests: sea ice predictability, initialization, prediction, impact on the northern hemisphere climate, ocean predictability, global warming slowdown

==== Chloé Prodhomme ====
Post-Doc\\
website: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chloe_Prodhomme \\
Interests: Seasonal forecasting, Tropical Variability, soil moisture, extreme events, heatwave, high resolution



==== Omar Bellprat ====
{{:working_groups:members:photo_omar.jpg?100 |}} 
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Omar_Bellprat|Personal page]]\\
Post-doctoral fellow\\
Interests: Seasonal prediction and attribution of extreme climate events \\
Interests: Verification of prediction systems, model and observational uncertainty\\


==== Louis-Philippe Caron ====
{{:working_groups:members:lpcaron.jpg?100 |}} 
[[http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Louis-philippe_Caron|Personal page]]\\
Post-doctoral fellow\\
Interests: Predictability of tropical cyclones at seasonal and multi-annual timescale\\
Interests: tropical cyclones, hurricanes, Atlantic variability and predictability


==== Constantin Ardilouze ====

==== Mathieu Boudreault ====
[[http://www.math.uqam.ca/page.php?id=47|Personal page]]\\

==== Lauriane Batte ====

==== Anna-Lena Deppenmeier ====

==== Ramiro Saurral ====

==== Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues ====
{{:working_groups:members:lrodrigues.jpg?70 |}}
[[http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4750588Z7|CV in Portuguese]]\\
Colaborator \\
Interests: climate predictability, forecast verification, multidisciplinary research\\
\\

[[https://www.bsc.es/wild-simon|Simon Wild]]\\

==== Eneko Martin Martinez ====
{{:working_groups:img59696.jpg?70 |}}
PhD Student\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9213-7818|ORCID profile]]\\
Interests: North Atlantic variability, mesoscale eddies, high resolution modeling\\

==== Ariadna Mecho ====
Marie Curie Fellow - Project MOANA\\
[[http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-815X|ORCID profile]] \\
[[https://https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mecho_Ariadna|Researchgate profile]] \\
Interests: Marine ecology, Anthropogenic Impact, Species distribution, Benthic ecosystems, 
Ecologically or Biologically Significant marine Areas, Ecosystems goods and Services, marine restoration, stakeholders.
==== Vinayak Huggannavar ====
{{:working_groups:bsc_photo_vinayak.jpg?70 |}}
Research Engineer/Postdoc\\
[[https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0545-5173|ORCID profile]]\\
[[https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vinayak-Huggannavar|Researchgate profile]]\\
Interests: Land atmosphere Interactions, Surface subsurface interactions and Impact of land use on climate\\

===== Reporting =====

* [[.cp:weekly_reporting|Climate Prediction Group Weekly Reporting]]

* [[.cp:paper_status|Paper status]]

* [[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_INalm2Mu3tFZ5YcoAbp_UtXh8hol9tvY9uk4LIL3x8/edit|CPG Agenda]]

* [[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1psIY1SjMcZWLeSPRH8D3bExqApfDVdMagsqp9V_Yc6c/edit|CPG Travels]]\\


===== Collection of publications =====
List of publications co-authored by CP members since 2016 (updated the 27/01/2022):
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MN9NDV324fqZB5iL1CX7NQfo327Yzo5O23MoyPabg0c/edit

* [[.cp:collection_of_publications|Collection of publications and access to non-open-access publications]]


===== Climate Prediction Activities - General Presentation and Other important links =====

{{ :working_groups:cp-general-presentation.ppt | Slides of Major CP activities}}

[[ https://earth.bsc.es/wiki/doku.php?id=working_groups:climate_prediction:barakuda_plots | Sharing Barakuda plots outside of BSC ]]

[[ https://earth.bsc.es/wiki/doku.php?id=working_groups:climate_prediction:real_time_predictions | Production of the real time predictions ]]



[[ https://earth.bsc.es/wiki/doku.php?id=working_groups:climate_prediction:publications | List of Publications by CPG members ]]
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