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working_groups:climate_prediction:publications

A list of the publications, either peer-reviewed or other types, can be found in this section. For those papers that are not open access, do not hesitate to send a message to any of us to request an open access copy of these papers.

You might also want to have a look at our series of technical memoranda.

When adding new publications, please, follow these formatting rules:

  • Naming convention: surname, initials first author, initials, surname following authors, (year of publication), title. Journal, volume, pages, doi, (project)
  • Link the pdf file of the publication to the first surname in the list of authors. Naming convention of the pdf file: username_journalname_year.pdf
  • Please follow the alphabetical and chronological ascending order
  • If your paper is open access please indicate and do not attach the paper to the first author

Peer-reviewed papers

2019

  1. A. de la Vara, P. Galan del Sastre, T. Arsouze, C. Gallardo, M. A. Gaertner (2019). Role of atmospheric resolution in the long-term seasonal variability of the Tyrrhenian Sea circulation from a set of ocean hindcast simulations (1997–2008). Ocean Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.01.004
  2. N. Dunic, I. Vilibić, J. Šepić, H. Mihanović, F. Sevault, S. Somot, R. Waldman, P. Nabat, T. Arsouze, R. Pennel, G. Jordà, R. Precali (2019). Performance of multi-decadal ocean simulations in the Adriatic Sea. Ocean Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.01.006
  3. Cruz-García, R., V. Guemas, M. Chevallier and F. Massonnet (2019). An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6. (APPLICATE, INTAROS, Copernicus, RyC, FPU).
  4. Prodhomme, C., A. Voldoire, E. Exarchou, A.-L. Deppenmeier, J. García‐Serrano and V. Guemas (2019). How does the seasonal cycle control equatorial Atlantic interannual variability? Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2018GL080837. (PREFACE, RyC, JdC).

2018

  1. Acosta Navarro, J.C., P. Ortega, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, E. Tourigny, R. Cruz-García, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). December 2016: Linking the Lowest Arctic Sea-Ice Extent on Record with the Lowest European Precipitation Event on Record Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Explainig Extreme Events of 2017, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0097.1. Open Access
  2. Alexander-Turner, R., P. Ortega and J. Robson (2018). How robust are the surface temperature fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on monthly time-scales? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1-9, doi:10.1029/2017GL076759. Open Access
  3. Amores, A., G. Jordà, T. Arsouze and J. Le Sommer (2018). Up to what extent can we characterize ocean eddies using present‐day gridded altimetric products? Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2018JC014140.
  4. Baudouin, J.-P., L.-P. Caron and M. Boudreault (2018). Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled hurricane activity. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4352-7. (RESPONS, JdlC)
  5. Befort, D.J., S. Wild, J.R. Knight, J.F. Lockwood, H.E. Thornton, L. Hermanson, P.E. Bett, A. Weisheimer and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.3406. Open Access
  6. Butchart, N., J.A. Anstey, K. Hamilton, S. Osprey, C. McLandress, A.C. Bushell, Y. Kawatani, Y.-H. Kim, F. Lott, J. Scinocca, T.N. Stockdale, M. Andrews, O. Bellprat, P. Braesicke, C. Cagnazzo, C.-C. Chen, H.-Y. Chun, M. Dobrynin, R.R. Garcia, J. García-Serrano, L.J. Gray, L. Holt, T. Kerzenmacher, H. Naoe, H. Pohlmann, J.H. Richter, A.A. Scaife, V. Schenzinger, F. Serva, S. Versick, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida and S. Yukimoto (2018). Overview of experimental design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1009-1032, doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-187. Open Access (DANAE)
  7. Caron, L.-P., L. Hermanson, A. Dobbin, J. Imbers, L. Lledó and G.A. Vecchi (2018). How skilful are the multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 403-413, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0025.1. Open Access (RESPONS, PREFACE, JdlC)
  8. Ceglar, A., A. Toreti, C. Prodhomme, M. Zampieri, M. Turco and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast. Scientific Reports, 8, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-19586-6. Open Access (IMPREX)
  9. Donat, M.G., A.J. Pitman and O. Angelil (2018). Understanding and reducing future uncertainty in midlatitude daily heat extremes via land surface feedback constraints. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 10,627-10,636, doi:10.1029/2018GL079128
  10. Exarchou, C. Prodhomme, L. Brodeau, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas‐Reyes (2018). Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model Climate Dynamics, 51, 1819-1840, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3984-3. (PREFACE)
  11. Fučkar, N.S., V. Guemas, N.C. Johnson and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4318-9. (PICA-ICE, SPECS, PRIMAVERA)
  12. Kimmritz, M., F. Counillon, C.M. Bitz, F. Massonnet, I. Bethke and Y. Gao (2018). Optimising assimilation of sea ice concentration in an Earth system model with a multicategory sea ice model. Tellus A, doi:10.1080/16000870.2018.1435945. Open Access
  13. King, M.P., I. Herceg-Bulic, I. Bladé, J. García-Serrano, N. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, C. Li and S. Sobolow (2018). Importance of late-fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 1337-1343, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0020.1. Open Access (DANAE)
  14. Lavender, S.L., K.J.E. Walsh, L.-P. Caron, M. King, S. Monkiewicz, M. Guishard, Q. Zhang and B. Hunt (2018). Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models. Science Advances, 4, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6509. Open Access (HIATUS, JdlC)
  15. Lledó, Ll., O. Bellprat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Soret (2018). Investigating the effects of Pacific sea surface temperatures on the wind drought of 2015 over the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 123, 4837-4849, doi: 10.1029/2017JD028019. (CLIM4ENERGY, S2S4E, INDECIS, EUCP, EUCLEIA)
  16. Mamadjanova, G., S. Wild, M. Walz and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). The role of synoptic processes in mudflow formation in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 2893-2919, doi: 10.5194/nhess-18-2893-2018. Open Access
  17. Manubens, N., L.-P. Caron, A. Hunter, O. Bellprat, E. Exarchou, N.S. Fučkar, J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Massonnet, M. Ménégoz, V. Sicardi, L. Batté, C. Prodhomme, V. Torralba, N. Cortesi, O. Mula-Valls, K. Serradell, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). An R package for climate forecast verification. Environmental Modelling & Software, 103, 29-42, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.01.018. (SPECS, EUCLEIA, PREFACE, EUPORIAS, QA4Seas, VERITAS-CCI)
  18. Massonnet, F., M. Vancoppenolle, H. Goosse, D. Docquier, T. Fichefet and E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (2018). Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes Nature Climate Change, 8, 599-603, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z. (APPLICATE, PRIMAVERA)
  19. Mavilia, I., B. Alessio, P. J. Athanasiadis, S. Gualdi, R. Msadek and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2018). On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4093-7.
  20. McGee, D., E. Moreno-Chamarro, J. Marshall and E.D. Galbraith (2018). Western US lake expansions during Heinrich stadials linked to Pacific Hadley circulation. Science advances, 4, eaav011, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav0118. Open Access
  21. Ménégoz, M., R. Bilbao, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 064022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4db. Open Access (VOLCADEC, HIATUS, SPECS)
  22. Ménégoz, M., C. Cassou, D. Swingedouw, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P.-A. Bretonnière and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. Climate Dynamics, 51, 1863-1883, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3986-1. (SPECS, VOLCADEC)
  23. Messori, G., D. van Wees, F.S.R. Pausata, J.C. Acosta Navarro, A. Hannachi and F.J. Dentener (2018) The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM2.5 concentrations. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, doi:10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704. Open Access
  24. Mishra, N., C. Prodhomme and V. Guemas (2018). Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z. (IMPREX)
  25. Neukermans, G., T. Harmel, M. Galí , N. Rudorff, J. Chowdhary, O. Dubovik, C. Hostetler, Y. Hu, C. Jamet, K. Knobelspiesse, Y. Lehahn, P. Litvinov, A.M. Sayer, B. Ward, E. Boss, I. Koren and L.A. Miller (2018). Harnessing remote sensing to address critical science questions on ocean-atmosphere interactions. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, doi:10.1525/elementa.331. Open Access
  26. Ruprich-Robert, Y., T. Delworth, R. Msadek, F. Castruccio, S. Yeager and D. Danabasoglu (2018). Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American summer climate and heat waves. Journal of Climate, 31, 3679-3700, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0270.1.
  27. Saurral, R.I., F.J. Doblas-Reyes and J. García-Serrano (2018). Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1129-1143, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3666-1. (SPECS, DPETNA)
  28. Smith, D.M., A.A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G.J. Boer, M. Caian, L.‐P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F.J. Doblas‐Reyes, R. Doescher, N.J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W.J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W.A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra‐Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang and S. Yeager (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5ºC. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11,895-11,903, doi:10.1029/2018GL079362. Open Access (EUCP, CLINSA, HIATUS)
  29. Thornalley, D., D.W. Oppo, P. Ortega, J.I. Robson, C.M. Brierley, R. Davis, I.R Hall, P. Moffa-Sanchez, N.L. Rose, P.T. Spooner, I. Yashayaev and L.D. Keigwin (2018). Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556, 227-230, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0007-4.
  30. Uotila, P., H. Goosse, K. Haines, M. Chevallier, A. Barthélemy, C. Bricaud, J. Carton, N. Fučkar, G. Garric, D. Iovino, F. Kauker, M. Korhonen, V.S. Lien, M. Marnela, F. Massonnet, D. Mignac, K.A. Peterson, R. Sadikni, L. Shi, S. Tietsche, T. Toyoda, J. Xie and Z. Zhang (2018). An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z. (APPLICATE)
  31. Vautard, R., N. Christidis, A. Ciavarella, C. Alvarez-Castro, O. Bellprat, B. Christiansen, I. Colfescu, T. Cowan, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, J. Eden, M. Hauser, G. Hegerl, N. Hempelmann, K. Klehmet, F. Lott, C. Nangini, R. Orth, S. Radanovics, S. I. Seneviratne, G. Jan van Oldenborgh, P. Stott, S. Tett, L. Wilcox and P. Yiou (2018). Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6. (EUCLEIA)
  32. Vial, J., C. Cassou, F. Codron, S. Bony and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2018). Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the tropical climate response to CO2 forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2018GL078558.
  33. Walz, M.A., M.G. Donat and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). Large‐scale drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2017JD027958. Open Access

2017

  1. Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. Müller and C. Prodhomme (2017). Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3959-397, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7. (SPECS, IMPREX, Severo Ochoa)
  2. Bellprat, O., F. Massonnet, S. Siegert, C. Prodhomme, D. Macias-Gómez, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Uncertainty propagation in observational references to climate model scales. Remote Sensing of the Environment, 203, 101-108, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.06.034. (SPECS, VERITAS-CCI, EUCLEIA)
  3. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., A. Barthélemy, M. Chevallier, R. Cullather, N. Fučkar, F. Massonnet, P. Posey, W. Wang, J. Zhang, C. Ardilouze, C.M. Bitz, G. Vernieres, A. Wallcraft and M. Wang (2017). Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1399-1410, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9. (PICA-ICE, JdC)
  4. Boudreault, M., L.-P. Caron and S. Camargo (2017). Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research A, 122, 4258-4280, doi:10.1002/2016JD026103. (RESPONS)
  5. Docquier, D., F. Massonnet, N.F. Tandon, O. Lecomte and T. Fichefet (2017). Arctic sea ice drift-strength feedback modelled by NEMO-LIM3.6. The Cryosphere, 11, 2829-2846, doi:10.5194/tc-2017-60. Open Access (PRIMAVERA)
  6. García-Serrano, J., C. Frankignoul, M.P. King, A. Arribas, Y. Gao, V. Guemas, D. Matei, R. Msadek, W. Park, and E. Sanchez-Gomez (2017). Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2407-2429, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3. (NACLIM, DPETNA, Severo.Ochoa)
  7. García-Serrano, J., C. Cassou, H. Douville, A. Giannini and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Revisiting the ENSO teleconnection to the tropical North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 30, 6945-6957, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0641.1. Open Access (DPETNA)
  8. García-Serrano, J. and R.J. Haarsma (2017). Non-annular, hemispheric signature of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 48, 3659-3670, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3292-3. (DPETNA)
  9. Gastineau, G., J. García-Serrano and C. Frankignoul (2017). The influence of autumnal Eurasian snow cover on climate and its link with Arctic sea ice cover. Journal of Climate, 30, 7599-7619, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0623.1. (NACLIM, DPETNA)
  10. Siegert, S., D. Stephenson, O. Bellprat, M. Ménégoz and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Detecting improvements in forecast correlation skill: Statistical testing and power analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 437-450, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0037.1. (SPECS, VERITAS)
  11. Swingedouw, D., J. Mignot, P. Ortega, M. Khodri, M. Ménégoz, C. Cassou and V. Hanquiez (2017). Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes. Global and Planetary Change, 150, 24-45, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.01.006. (VOLCADEC)
  12. Turco, M., A. Ceglar, C. Prodhomme, A. Soret, A. Toreti and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 84006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859. Open Access (IMPREX, SPECS)
  13. Volpi, D., V. Guemas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins and N. Nichols (2017). Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach. Climate Dynamics, 48, 1841-1853, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3176-6. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  14. Volpi, D., V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1181-1195, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3373-3. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)

2016

  1. Bellprat, O. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 2158-2164, doi:10.1002/2015GL067189. (VERITAS-CCI, EUCLEIA)
  2. Bellprat, O., Massonnet, F., García-Serrano, J., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., and F. Doblas-Reyes (2016). The role of Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures on the cold 2015 February over North America. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 97, S36-S41, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0159.1. Open Access (EUCLEIA, SPECS, PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  1. Camp, J. and L.-P. Caron (2016). Analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclone landfall forecasts in coupled GCMs on seasonal and decadal timescales. In Hurricanes and Climate Change, 3rd edition, Springer. (RESPONS, SPECS)
  2. Carrassi, A., V. Guemas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Volpi and M. Asif (2016). Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction. Part I: Generating initial conditions. Climate Dynamics, 47, 3693-3712, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4. (INCLIDA, SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  3. Day, J., S. Tietsche, M. Collins, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, A. Guillory, W. Hurlin, M. Ishii, S. Keeley, D. Matei, R. Msadek, M. Sigmond, H. Tatebe and E. Hawkins (2016). The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1. Geoscientific Model Devevelopment Discussions, 9, 2255-2270, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  4. Favier, V., D. Verfaillie, E. Berthier, M. Ménégoz, V. Jomelli, J.E. Kay, L. Ducret, Y. Malbéteau, D. Brunstein, H. Gallée, Y.H. Park and V. Rinterknecht (2016). Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean. Scientific Reports, 6, 32396, doi:10.1038/srep32396. Open access
  5. Fučkar, N.S., V. Guemas, N.C. Johnson, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1527-1543, doi:10.​1007/​s00382-015-2917-2. (PICA-ICE, SPECS)
  6. Fučkar, N.S, F. Massonnet, V. Guemas, J. García-Serrano, O. Bellprat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Acosta (2016). Record low northern hemisphere sea ice extent in March 2015. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 97, S136-S140, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0153.1. Open Access (EUCLEIA, SPECS, PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  7. García-Serrano, J. and C. Frankignoul (2016). On the feedback of the winter NAO-driven sea ice anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1601-1612, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2922-5. (NACLIM, DPETNA)
  8. Guemas, V., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, M. Chevallier, J.J. Day, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N. Fučkar, A. Germe, E. Hawkins, S. Keeley, T. Koenigk, D. Salas y Mélia and S. Tietsche (2016). A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 546-561, doi:10.1002/qj.2401. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  9. Guemas, V., M. Chevallier, M. Déqué, O. Bellprat and F.J. Doblas‐Reyes (2016). Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 3889-3896, doi:10.1002/2015GL066626. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, VERITAS-CCI)
  10. Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 (2016) Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 4185-4208, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  11. King, M. P. and J. García-Serrano (2016). Potential ocean-atmosphere preconditioning of late autumn Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly. Tellus A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68, 28580, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v68.28580. Open Access (DPETNA, Severo Ochoa)
  12. Krikken, F., M. Schmeits, W. Vlot, V. Guemas and W. Hazeleger (2016). Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5124-5132, doi:10.1002/2016GL068462.
  13. Manubens-Gil, D., J. Vegas-Regidor, C. Prodhomme, O. Mula-Valls and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Seamless management of ensemble climate prediction experiments on HPC platforms. Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on High Performance Computing & Simulation (HPCS), Innsbruck, 895-900, doi:10.1109/HPCSim.2016.7568429 . (SPECS, IS-ENES2)
  14. Massonnet, F., O. Bellprat, V. Guemas and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets. Science, 6311, 452-455, doi:10.1126/science.aaf6369. (FNRS, SPECS, PICA-ICE, EUCLEIA, VERITAS, CMUG, RES).
  15. Mignot, J., J. García-Serrano, D. Swingedouw, A. Germe, S. Nguyen, P. Ortega, E. Guilyardi and S. Ray (2016). Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1225-1246, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1. (SPECS, NACLIM)
  16. Prodhomme, C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, O. Bellprat and E. Dutra (2016). Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 47, 919-935, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4. (SPECS, DENFREE, EUCLEIA, MINECO CGL2013-41055-R)
  17. Prodhomme, C., L. Batté, F. Massonnet, P. Davini, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas, and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Benefits of increasing the model resolution for the seasonal forecast quality in EC-Earth. Journal of Climate, 29, 9141-9162, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1. (SPECS, EUCLEIA, PREFACE, PRIMAVERA, IMPREX, VERITAS)

2015

  1. Barth, A., M. Canter, B. Van Schaeybroeck, S. Vannitsem, F. Massonnet, V. Zunz, P. Mathiot, A. Alvera-Azcárate and J.-M. Beckers (2015). Assimilation of sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and sea ice drift in a model of the Southern Ocean. Ocean Modelling, 93, 22-39, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.011. (FNRS)
  2. Bellprat, O., F.C. Lott, C. Gulizia, H.R. Parker, L. Pampuch, I. Pinto, A. Ciavarella and P.A. Stott (2015). Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 36-46, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001. (EUCLEIA) Open Access
  3. Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and C.L. Bruyere (2015). Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 44, 1801-1821, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5. (SPECS)
  4. Caron, L.-P., L. Hermanson and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 2417-2425, doi:10.1002/2015GL063303. (RPI2.0-2013-CARON, SPECS)
  5. Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and S.J. Camargo (2015). On the variability and predictability of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 28, 9678-9696, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0377.1. (SPECS, RESPONS)
  6. García-Serrano, J., C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau and A. de la Cámara (2015). On the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate: lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate, 28, 5195-5216, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1. (NACLIM, EMBRACE)
  7. García-Serrano, J., V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2539-2555, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7. (SPECS)
  8. Goessling, H., T. Jung, S. Klebe J. Baeseman, P. Bauer, P. Chen, M. Chevallier, R. Dole, N. Gordon, P. Ruti, A. Bradley, D. Bromwich, B. Casati, D. Chechin, J. Day, F. Massonnet, B. Mills, I. Renfrew, G. Smith and R. Tatusko (2015). Paving the way for the year of Polar Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, ES85-ES88, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00270.1. (FNRS)
  9. Guemas, V., J. García-Serrano, A. Mariotti, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and L.-P. Caron (2015). Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 580-597, doi:10.1002/qj.2379. (SPECS, CLIM-RUN, QWeCI, RUCSS)
  10. Jung, T., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, C. Bitz, C. Buontempo, R. Caballero, E. Jakobson, J. Jungclaus, M. Karcher, T. Koenigk, D. Matei, J. Overland, T. Spengler and S. Yang (2015). Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, ES197-ES200, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00121.1. (SPECS) Open Access
  11. Massonnet, F. (2015). Communicating climate complexity. Commentary in Physics Today, 68, 8, doi:10.1063/PT.3.2894. (SPECS, FNRS)
  12. Massonnet, F., V. Guemas, N. Fuckar and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). The 2014 high record of Antarctic sea ice extent. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 96, S163-S167, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00093.1. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, EUCLEIA, FNRS) Open Access
  13. Pepler, A.S., L.B. Díaz, C. Prodhomme, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Kumar (2015). The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 68-77, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005. (SPECS, EUCLEIA)
  14. Prodhomme, C., P. Terray, S. Masson, G. Boschat and T. Izumo (2015). Oceanic factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 977-1002, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2200-y.
  15. Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., E. Mohino, C.R. Mechoso, C. Caminade, M. Biasutti, M. Gaetani, J. García-Serrano, E.K. Vizy, K. Cook, Y. Xue, I. Polo, T. Losada, L. Druyan, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, L. Goddard, S. Janicot, A. Arribas, W. Lau, A. Colman, M. Vellinga, D.P. Rowell, F. Kucharski and A. Voldoire (2015). Variability and predictability of west African droughts: A review of the role of sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, 28, 4034-4060, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1. (SPECS)
  16. Stroeve, J., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, V. Guemas, S. Howell, F. Massonnet and S. Tietsche (2015). Improving predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. EOS, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO031431. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, FNRS)
working_groups/climate_prediction/publications.txt · Last modified: 2019/01/22 19:48 by portega