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working_groups:climate_prediction:cvc_sgr_papers

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Table of Contents

Peer-reviewed articles co-authored by CVC members

2026

  1. Delgado-Torres, C., M.G. Donat, N. Pérez-Zanón, V, Torralba, R. Bilbao, P.-A. Bretonnière, M. Samsó-Cabré, A. Soret and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2026). Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions. Earth System Dynamics, 17, 41-56, doi:10.5194/esd-17-41-2026. Open Access (ASPECT, BOREAS) [ESS,CVC,CES,GES]
  2. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., J. Kontkanen, I. Sandu, M. Acosta, M. H. Al Turjmam, I. Alsina-Ferrer, M. Andrés-Martínez, L. Arriola, M. Axness, M. Batlle Martín, P. Bauer, T. Becker, D. Beltrán, S. Beyer, H. Bockelmann, P.-A. Bretonnière, S. Cabaniols, S. Caprioli, M. Castrillo, A. Chandrasekar, S. Cheedela, V. Correal, E. Danovaro, P. Davini, J. Enkovaara, C. Frauen, B. Früh, A. Gaya Àvila, P. Ghinassi, R. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, I. González, K. Grayson, M. Griffith, I. Hadade, C. Haine, C. Hartick, U.-U. Haus, S. Hearne, H. Järvinen, B. Jiménez, A. John, M. Juchem, T. Jung, J. Kegel, M. Kelbling, K. Keller, B. Kinoshita, T. Kiszler, D. Klocke, L. Kluft, N. Koldunov, T. Kölling, J. Kolstela, L. Kornblueh, S. Kosukhin, A. Lacima-Nadolnik, J. J. Leal Rojas, J. Lehtiranta, T. Lunttila, A. Luoma, P. Manninen, A. Medvedev, S. Milinski, A. O. A. Mohammed, S. Müller, D. Naryanappa, N. Nazarova, S. Niemelä, B. Niraula, H. Nortamo, A. Nummelin, M. Nurisso, P. Ortega, S. Paronuzzi, X. Pedruzo Bagazgoitia, C. Pelletier, C. Peña, S. Polade, H. Pradhan, R. Quintanilla, T. Quintino, T. Rackow, J. Räisänen, M. M. Rajput, R. Redler, B. Reuter, N. Rocha Monteiro, F. Roura-Adserias, S. Ruppert, S. Sayed, R. Schnur, T. Sharma, D. Sidorenko, O. Sievi-Korte, A. Soret, C. Steger, B. Stevens, J. Streffing, J. Sunny, L. Tenorio, S. Thober, U. Tigerstedt, O. Tinto, J. Tonttila, H. Tuomenvirta, L. Tuppi, G. Van Thielen, E. Vitali, J. von Hardenberg, I. Wagner, N. Wedi, J. Wehner, S. Willner, X. Yepes-Arbós, F. Ziemen, and J. Zimmermann: The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation (2026). Geoscientific Model Development, Accepted, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-2198. Open Access [CVC, GES, CES]
  3. Everingham, S. E., I. A., Wright, L., Teckentrup, S., Allen and R. V., Gallagher (2026). Exposure and sensitivity of threatened plant species to changing drought regimes: A global analysis. Biological Conservation, 315, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111684. Open Access [CVC]
  4. Li, C., M. Kotz et al. (2026) Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [CVC]
  5. Ospina, D., P. Mirazo, R. P. Allan, S. Basnett, A. Bastos, N. Bhattarai, W. Broadgate, D. J. Broekhoff, M. Bustamante, D. Chen, Y. Choi, P. Cox, L. A. Domeignoz-Horta, K. Ebi, P. Friedlingstein, T. L. Frölicher, S. Fuss, H. F. Goessling, N. Gruber, Q. He, S. R. Hebden, N. Hedrich, A. Heilemann, M. Hirota, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Hugelius, S. Izquierdo-Tort, S. Juhola, F. Kasuga, P. Ke, D. I. Kelley, Ş. Kilkiş, M. Kotz, et al. Ten new insights in climate science 2025 (2026). Global Sustainability [CVC]
  6. Palma, L., A. Peraza, D. Civantos-Prieto, A. Duarte, S. Materia, Á.G. Muñoz, J. Peña-Izquierdo, L. Romero, A. Soret and M.G. Donat (2026). Data-driven seasonal climate predictions via variational inference and transformers. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 9, 48, doi:10.1038/s41612-026-01320-z. Open Access (AI4Drought, CERISE, EXPECT) [ESS/CVC]

2025

  1. Aalto, T., A. Tsuruta, J. Mäkelä, J. Müller, M. Tenkanen, E. Burke, S. Chadburn, Y. Gao, V. Mannisenaho, T. Kleinen, H. Lee, A. Leppänen, T. Markkanen, S. Materia, P.A. Miller, D. Peano, O. Peltola, B. Poulter, M. Raivonen, M. Saunois, D. Wårlind, and S. Zaehle: Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe, Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025 Open Access [CVC]
  2. Alexander, L. V., P. L. Nguyen, M. G. Donat, R. J. H. Dunn, S. Tett, X. Zhang, L. M. Alves, M. Bador, X. Deng, P. B. Gibson, A. King, C. Lennard, S. Min, R. Roca and B. Trewin (2025). Less intense daily precipitation maxima in regional compared to global gridded products, Journal of Climate, 38, 7669–7693, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0222.1. [CVC]
  3. Aranyossy, A., P. De Luca, C. Delgado-Torres, B. Solaraju-Murali, M. Samso Cabre and M.G. Donat (2025). Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes. Earth System Dynamics, 16, 2225–2251, doi:10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025. Open Access (ASPECT) [CVC, ESS]
  4. Bilbao, R., T. J. Aubry, M. Toohey & P. Ortega (2025). The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption, Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 6239–6254, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025 . Open Access (IMPETUS4CHANGE, CONFESS) [CVC]
  5. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. Bilbao, A. Donohoe and S. Materia (2025). Record warmth of 2023 and 2024 was highly predictable and resulted from ENSO transition and Northern Hemisphere absorbed shortwave anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115614, doi:10.1029/2025GL115614. Open Access [CVC]
  6. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, J. Robson, A. Teles-Machado, and P. Ortega (2025). A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025. Open Access (IMPETUS4CHANGE) [CVC]
  7. Chen H., P. De Luca, A. Hochman and T.D. Komacek (2025). Effects of transient stellar emissions on planetary climates of tidally-locked exo-earths. The Astronomical Journal, 170, 40. Open Access [CVC]
  8. Choquehuanca, B., A. Godoy and R. Saurral (2025). Assessing the skill of high-impact weather forecasts in southern South America: a study on cut-off lows. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 6, 317, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1063. Open Access [CVC]
  9. Cvijanovic, I., A. Simon, X. Levine, R. White, P. Ortega, M. Donat, D.D. Lucas, J.C.H. Chiang, A. Seidenglanz, D. Bojovic, A. Ramos Amaral, V. Lapin, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and D. Petrova (2025). Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 154, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02059-w. Open Access [CVC,ESS,GES]
  10. Delgado-Torres, C., S. Octenjak, R. Marcos-Matamoros, N. Pérez-Zanón, E. Baulenas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M.G. Donat, L.M. Lwiza, N. Milders, A. Soret, S. Whittlesey and D. Bojovic (2025). Supporting food security with multi-annual climate information: Co-production of climate services for the Southern African Development Community. Science of The Total Environment, 975, 179259, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179259. Open Access [ESS,CVC,GES] (ASPECT, FOCUS-Africa, PATHFINDER)
  11. Frigola, A., E. Martin-Martinez, E. Moreno-Chamarro, M. Samsó, S. Loosvelt-Tomas, P.-A. Bretonnière, D. Kuznetsova, X. Lin, P. Ortega (2025). The North Atlantic mean state in mesoscale eddy-resolving coupled models: a multimodel study. Ocean Science, 21, 3507–3540, doi:10.5194/os-21-3507-2025. Open Access (STREAM, EERIE, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  12. Gaymer C.F., D. Wagner, R. Alvarez-Varas, B. Boteler, L. Bravo, C.M. Brooks, V. Chavez-Molina, D. Currie, J. Delgado, B. Dewitte, E.E. Easton, A.M. Friedlander, M.A. Gallardo, M. Gianni, K. Gjerde, M. Gorny, S. Hormazabal, R. Hucke-Gaete, G. Luna-Jorquera, A. Mecho, N. Morales-Serrano, L. Morgan, P. Nuñez, M. Ramos, J. Rapu, C. Rodrigo, J. Sellanes, E. Soto, M. Thiel, L. Van der Meer and D. Veliz (2025). Research advances and conservation needs for an effective protection of the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges: a natural and cultural heritage hotspot in the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Marine Policy, 171, 106453, doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106453. Open Access [CVC]
  13. Gulizia, C., R. Saurral and I. Camilloni (2025). Potential effects of stratospheric aerosol injection on the mean and extreme climate of South America. Environmental Research: Climate, 4, 045004, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae065a. Open Access [CVC]
  14. Kotz, M., M.G. Donat, T. Lancaster, M. Parker, P. Smith, A. Taylor, S.H. Vetter (2025). Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks. Environmental Research Letters, 20:081001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f Open Access [CVC]
  15. Kotz, M., T. Amano, J.E.M. Watson (2025). Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification. Nature Ecology & Evolution, doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02811-7 [CVC]
  16. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, V. Lapin, E. Tourigny & F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2025). Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1923–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025 . Open Access (ASPECT) [CVC]
  17. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, F. J. Doblas-Reyes & E. Tourigny (2025). A Perfect-Model Perspective on the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Initialized Decadal Predictions, Journal of Climate, 38, 2841–2851, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0381.1. Open Access (PRECEDE, ASPECT, PATHFINDER, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  18. Mahmood, R., S. Yang, M. G. Donat (2025). Constraining the NAO-temperature teleconnection in CMIP6 simulations enables skillful multi-annual predictions of Eurasian winter climate, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (7), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adde75 Open Access (Impetus4Change) [CVC]
  19. Martin-Martinez, E., A. Frigola, E. Moreno-Chamarro, D. Kuznetsova, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, M. Samsó Cabré, P.-A. Bretonnière, and P. Ortega (2025). Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1343–1364, doi:10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025 Open Access (STREAM, EERIE, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  20. Moreno-Chamarro, E., T. Arsouze, M. Acosta, P.-A. Bretonnière, M. Castrillo, E. Ferrer, A. Frigola, D. Kuznetsova, E. Martin-Martinez, P. Ortega and S. Palomas (2025). The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 461–482, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, STREAM, EERIE) [CVC, CES]
  21. Palomas, S., M. C. Acosta, G. Utrera, E. Tourigny (2025). Reducing time and computing costs in EC-Earth: an automatic load-balancing approach for coupled Earth system models. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 3081–3098, 2024, doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025. Open Access (OEMES (PID2020-116324RA-I00), ISENES3 (H2020-GA-824084), ESiWACE3 (101093054)) [CES, CVC]
  22. Reid, K. J., M.A. Barnes, Z.E. Gillett, T. Parker, D.G. Udy, H. Ayat, G. Boschat, A. Bowden, N. Grosfeld, A.D. King, D. Richardson, Y. Shao, L. Teckentrup, B. Trewin, P. Hope, L. Zhou, A.R. Borowiak, C.M. Holgate and R.N. Isphording (2025). A multiscale evaluation of the wet 2022 in Eastern Australia. Journal of Climate, 38, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0224.1. Open Access [CVC]
  23. Roldán-Gómez, P.J., P. De Luca, R. Bernardello and M.G. Donat (2025). Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries. Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1–27, doi:10.5194/esd-16-1-2025. Open Access (RESCUE, PRECEDE) [CVC]
  24. Roldán-Gómez, P. J., P. Ortega, and M. G. Donat (2025). Contribution of meridional overturning circulation and sea ice changes to large-scale temperature asymmetries in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios, Ocean Science, 21, 2283–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025. Open Access (RESCUE, PRECEDE) [CVC]
  25. Roberts, M. J., K. A. Reed, Q. Bao, J. J. Barsugli, S. J. Camargo, L.-P. Caron, P. Chang, C.-T. Chen, H. M. Christensen, G. Danabasoglu, I. Frenger, N. S. Fučkar, S. U. Hasson, H. T. Hewitt, H. Huang, D. Kim, C. Kodama, M. Lai, L.-Y. R. Leung, R. Mizuta, P. Nobre, P. Ortega, D. Paquin, C. D. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, J. Seddon, A. M. Treguier, C.-Y. Tu, P. A. Ullrich, P. L. Vidale, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, B. Zhang, W. Zhang, and M. Zhao (2025). High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7, Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 1307–1332. Open Access (EERIE) [CVC]
  26. Santos-Espeso, A., M. Gonçalves Ageitos, P. Ortega, C. Pérez García-Pando, M.G. Donat, M. Samso Cabré and S. Loosveldt Tomas (2025). Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers. Earth System Dynamics, 16, 2161–2186. Open Access (FOCI, CERTAINTY, AXA Chair, 2021 SGR 000786 and 01550) [AC, CVC]
  27. Saurral, R., F. Doblas-Reyes, J. Screen, J. Catto, S. Hay, and H. Yu (2025). Western Mediterranean droughts fostered by Arctic sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 38, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0066.1. Open access (Polar2MidLat,AI4S)[CVC]
  28. Saurral, R., J. Screen, and F. Doblas-Reyes (2025) Model-dependent response of low clouds to Arctic sea-ice loss. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (18), doi:10.1029/2025GL117035 Open Access (Polar2MidLat,AI4S)[CVC]
  29. Solaraju-Murali, B., Torralba, V., Delgado-Torres, C., Donat, M.G., Cos, P., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., (2025). Constraining decadal climate predictions with seasonal forecasts: a step toward seamless multi-year climate information. https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1748-9326/adfd73. Open Access [ESS,CVC] (ASPECT, BOREAS)
  30. Verjans, V., C.L.E. Franzke, S.S. Lee, I.W. Kim, S. Tilmes, D.M. Lawrence, F. Vitt and F. Li (2025). Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions. Science Advances, 11, doi:10.1126/sciadv.adt5088. Open Access [CVC]
  31. Verjans, V., Robel, A. A., Ultee, L., Seroussi, H., Thompson, A. F., Ackermann, L., Choi, Y., and Krebs-Kanzow, U. (2025). The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025. Open Access [CVC]
  32. Yeung, N. K. H., L., Teckentrup, L., Menviel, K. J., Meissner, A. J., Pitman, T. Ziehn and M. A., Chamberlain (2025). Simulated terrestrial warming at the last interglacial due to vegetation change. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 40, e2025PA005225. doi:10.1029/2025PA005225 [CVC]

2024

  1. Alonso, G., C. Simionato, M. Dinápoli, R. Saurral and N. Bodnariuk (2024). Positive storm surges in the Río de la Plata estuary: forcings, long-term variability, trends and linkage with Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf dynamics. Natural Hazards, doi:1007/s11069-024-06402-w. [CVC]
  2. Badagian, J., M. Barreiro and R. Saurral (2024). Evaluation of subseasonal precipitation forecasts in the Uruguay River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.8634 [CVC]
  3. Bernardello, R., V. Sicardi, V. Lapin, P. Ortega, Y. Ruprich-Robert, E. Tourigny and E. Ferrer (2024). Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake. Earth System Dynamics, doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024. Open Access (4C, CDRESM) [CVC]
  4. Bianco, E., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, S. Materia, P. Ruggieri, D. Iovino, and S. Masina (2024) CMIP6 models underestimate Arctic sea ice loss during the Early Twentieth-Century Warming, despite simulating large low-frequency sea ice variability. J. Climate, in press, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0647.1. [CVC]
  5. Bianco, E., D. Iovino, S. Masina, S. Materia, and P. Ruggieri (2024). The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. The Cryosphere, 18, 2357–2379doi:10.5194/esd-15-501-2024. [CVC]
  6. Bilbao, R., P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, P. Athanasiadis, R. Eade, M. Devilliers, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, A.-C. Ho, W. Merryfield, J. Mignot, D. Nicolì, M. Samsó, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, X. Wu and S. Yeager (2024). Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 501-525, doi:10.5194/esd-15-501-2024. Open Access [CVC,GES]
  7. Campana, P.E., B. Stridth, T. Hörndahl, S.-E. Svensson, S. Zainali, S. Ma Lu, T.E.K. Zidane, P. De Luca, S. Amaducci and M. Colauzzi (2024). Experimental results, integrated model validation, and economic aspects of agrivoltaic systems at northern latitudes. Journal of Cleaner Production, 437, 140235, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140235. Open Access [CVC]
  8. Cos, P., R. Marcos-Matamoros, M. Donat, R. Mahmood and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Near-term Mediterranean summer temperature climate projections: A comparison of constraining methods. Journal of Climate, 37, 4367–4388, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1. Open Access (ASPECT, PATHFINDER, AXA Award Donat) [ESS,GES]
  9. Crochemore, L., S. Materia, E. Delpiazzo, S. Bagli, A. Borrelli, F. Bosello, E. Contreras, F. Dalla Valle, S. Gualdi, J. Herrero, F. Larosa, R. Lopez, V. Luzzi, P. Mazzoli, A. Montani, I. Moreno, V. Pavan, I. Pechlivanidis, F. Tomei, G. Villani, C. Photiadou, M.J. Polo and Mysiak, J. (2024). A framework for joint verification and evaluation of seasonal climate services across socio-economic sectors. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0026.1. [CVC]
  10. Dinápoli, M., C. Simionato, G. Alonso, N. Bodnariuk, and R. Saurral (2024). Negative storm surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: mechanisms, variability, trends and linkage with the Continental Shelf dynamics. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108844. [CVC]
  11. De Luca, P., M. Braam, T.D. Komacek and A. Hochman (2024). The impact of Ozone on Earth-like exoplanet climate dynamics: the case of Proxima Centauri b. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, stae1199, doi:10.1093/mnras/stae1199. Open Access [CVC]
  12. Donat, M.G., R. Mahmood, P. Cos, P. Ortega and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035013, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463. Open Access (ASPECT, EXPECT, PRECEDE, PATHFINDER, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  13. Dunn, R.J.H., N. Herold, L.V. Alexander, M.G. Donat, R. Allan, M. Bador et al. (2024). Observed global changes in sector-relevant climate extremes indices—An extension to HadEX3. Earth and Space Science, 11, e2023EA003279, doi:10.1029/2023EA003279. Open Access (LANDMARC) [CVC]
  14. Hieronymus, J., M. Hieronymus, M. Gröger, J. Schwinger, R. Bernadello, E. Tourigny, V. Sicardi, I. Ruvalcaba Baroni, and K. Wyser (2024). Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century, Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, doi:10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024. Open Access (NetNPPAO) [CVC]
  15. Jones, C.G., Adloff, F., Booth, B. B. B., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Frieler, K., Hewitt, H. T., Jeffery, H. A., Joussaume, S., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, B. N., O'Rourke, E., Roberts, M. J., Sanderson, B. M., Séférian, R., Somot, S., Vidale, P. L., van Vuuren, D., Acosta, M., Bentsen, M., Bernardello, R., Betts, R., Blockley, E., Boé, J., Bracegirdle, T., Braconnot, P., Brovkin, V., Buontempo, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Donat, M., Epicoco, I., Falloon, P., Fiore, S., Frölicher, T., Fučkar, N. S., Gidden, M. J., Goessling, H. F., Graversen, R. G., Gualdi, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Ilyina, T., Jacob, D., Jones, C. D., Juckes, M., Kendon, E., Kjellström, E., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Mizielinski, M., Nassisi, P., Obersteiner, M., Regnier, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Schleussner, C.-F., Schulz, M., Scoccimarro, E., Terray, L., Thiemann, H., Wood, R. A., Yang, S., and Zaehle, S. (2024). Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1319–1351, doi:10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024. Open Access [CVC, CES]
  16. De Luca, P., B. Jiménez-Esteve, L. Degenhardt, S. Schemm and S. Pfahl (2024). Enhanced blocking frequencies in very-high resolution idealized climate model simulations Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL111016, doi:10.1029/2024GL111016. Open Access (HEU DeCaGloPreCEs) [CVC]
  17. Martín-Gómez, V., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Polo and M. Martín-Rey (2024). Observed global mean state changes modulating the collective influence of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans on ENSO. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0450.1.(ReSPoNSe) [CVC]
  18. Materia S., L. Palma-García, C. Straaten, S. O, A. Mamalakis, L. Cavicchia, D. Coumou, P. de Luca, M. Kretschmer, M. Donat (2024). Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives. WIREs Climate Change, e914, doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  19. Meis, M., M. Sued, R. Saurral and P. Menéndez (2024). A novel statistically-based approach to regionalize extreme precipitation events using temperature data. Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-024-06805-9. [CVC]
  20. Meroni, M., P. Vojonovic, M. Zampieri, S. Materia, F. Rembold, O. Kipkogei and A. Toreti (2024). Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts. Climate Services, 33, 100434, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434. Open Access (FocusAFRICA) [CVC]
  21. Mohino, E., P.-A. Monerie, J. Mignot, M. Diakhaté, M. Donat, C.D. Roberts and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 15–40, doi:10.5194/esd-15-15-2024. Open Access [CVC,GES]
  22. Petrova, I.Y., D. G. Miralles, F. Brient, M. G. Donat, S.-K. Min, Y.-H. Kim, M. Bador (2024), Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells. Nature 633, 594–600. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07887-y Open Access (LANDMARC, EXPECT) [CVC]
  23. Plésiat, É., R.J.H. Dunn, M. G. Donat and C. Kadow (2024). Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records. Nature Communications 15, 9191. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53464-2. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  24. Sillmann, J., T. H. Raupach, K. Findell, M. Donat, L. M. Alves, L. Alexander, et al. (2024). Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Frontiers in Climate 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  25. Sospedra-Alfonso, R., William J. Merryfield; Matthew Toohey; Claudia Timmreck; Jean Paul Vernier; Ingo Bethke; Yiguo Wang; Roberto Bilbao; Markus G. Donat; Pablo Ortega; Jason Cole; Woo-Sung Lee; Thomas L. Delworth; David Paynter; Fanrong Zeng; Liping Zhang; Myriam Khodri; Juliette Mignot; Didier Swingedouw; Olivier Torres; Shuai Hu; Wenmin Man; Meng Zuo; Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Takahito Kataoka; Hiroaki Tatebe: Decadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption. BAMS, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0111.1 Open Access (CONFESS) [CVC]
  26. Steenbeek, J., P. Ortega, R. Bernardello, V. Christensen, M. Coll, E. Exarchou, A. Fuster-Alonso, R. Heneghan, L. Juliá Melis, M. G. Pennino, D. Rivas and N. Keenlyside (2024). Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories. Eart's Future, 12, e2023EF004295. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004295 Open Access (TRIATLAS) [CVC]
  27. Teckentrup, L., De Kauwe, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Warlind, David, Ukkola, A. M., and Smith, B. (2024). Resolving Uncertainty in the Response of Australia's Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Projected Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111398. Open Access [CVC, ESS]
  28. Torralba, V., S. Materia, L. Cavicchia, M.C. Álvarez-Castro, C. Prodhomme, R. McAdam, E. Scoccimarro, and S. Gualdi (2024). Nighttime heat waves in the Euro-Mediterranean region: definition, characterisation, and seasonal prediction. Environmental Research Letters, 19(3), 034001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad24cf Open Access (ARTIST S. Materia) [ESS, CVC]
  29. Zhang, S., Y. Pan, Y. Xue, I. Diallo, X. Zeng, S. Li, J.D. Neelin, W.K.M. Lau, A.A. Boone, F. Vitart, T. Yao, Q. Tang, T. Sato, M.S. Koo, C. Ardilouze, S.K.Saha, J. Yang, S. Materia, Z. Lin, X. Qi, Y. Qin, T. Nakamura, P. Nobre, D. Peano, R. Senan, Y. Takaya, H. Wang, H. Zhang, Y. Zhan, M. Zhao, C.R. Mechoso, Q. Bao, M.J. Bottino, S. Hong, Y. Lin, S. Xie, X. Pan, H.P. Nayak, S.C. Chou, W. Guo (2024). Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment. Clim Dyn 62, 2907–2924. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07210-5. Open Access [CVC]

2023

  1. Hochman, A., T.D., Komacek and P. De Luca (2023). Analogous response of temperate terrestrial exoplanets and Earth’s climate dynamics to greenhouse gas supplement. Scientific Reports, 13, 11123, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38026-8 Open Access (MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  2. Acosta, M. C., S. Palomas and E. Tourigny (2023). Balancing EC-Earth3 improving the performance of EC-Earth CMIP6 configurations by minimizing the coupling cost. Earth and Space Science, 10, e2023EA002912, doi:10.1029/2023EA002912. Open Access (OEMES) [CES, CVC]
  3. Cañete, J.I., M.S. Romero, E.E. Easton, A. Mecho and J. Sellanes (2023). Chloeia rozbaczyloi, a new species of polychaete (Archinominae: Amphinomidae) and first record of the family for the Nazca Ridge, southeastern Pacific Ocean. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 104110, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2023.104110. Open Access [CVC]
  4. Delgado-Torres, C., M. G. Donat, A. Soret, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P.-A. Bretonnière, A.-C. Ho, N. Pérez-Zanón, M. Samsó Cabré, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1. Open Access (ASPECT) [CVC-ESS]
  5. De Luca, P., C. Delgado-Torres, R. Mahmood, M. Samsó and M. G. Donat (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054, https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf389 Open Access (LANDMARC, ASPECT, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  6. De Luca, P., & M. G. Donat (2023). Projected changes in hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes over global land regions. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102493. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102493. Open Access (LANDMARC, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  7. Donat, M. G., C. Delgado-Torres, P. De Luca, R. Mahmood, P. Ortega and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102466. Open Access (LANDMARC, ASPECT, SGR2021_CVC, AXA_Award_Donat, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  8. Findell, K. L., R. Sutton, N. Caltabiano, A. Brookshaw, P. Heimbach, M. Kimoto, S. Osprey, D. Smith, J. S. Risbey, Z. Wang, L. Cheng, L. Diaz, M. G. Donat, M. Ek, J. Lee, S. Minobe, M. Rusticucci, F. Vitart, L. Wang (2023). Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 104(1), E325-E339, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1. Open Access [CVC]
  9. González-Alemán, J. J., D. Insua-Costa, E. Bazile, S. González-Herrero, M. Marcello Miglietta, P. Groenemeijer, M. G. Donat (2023). Anthropogenic Warming Had a Crucial Role in Triggering the Historic and Destructive Mediterranean Derecho in Summer 2022. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(8), E1526-E1532. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0119.1 Open Access [CVC]
  10. Liu, Y., M.G. Donat, M.H. England, L.V. Alexander, A.L. Hirsch and C. Delgado-Torres (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9. Open Access (ASPECT, AXA Chair) [CVC, ESS]
  11. Martín-Gómez, V., Y. Ruprich-Robert, R. Bernardello, E. Tourigny, M. Donat, P. Ortega and M. Samso Cabré (2023). Large spread in interannual variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models. npj-Climate and atmospheric sciences, 6, doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x. Open Access (ReSPonSe, 4C, LANDMARC) [CVC]
  12. Massonnet F, Barreira S, Barthélemy A, Bilbao R, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Blockley E, Bromwich DH, Bushuk M, Dong X, Goessling HF, Hobbs W, Iovino D, Lee W-S, Li C, Meier WN, Merryfield WJ, Moreno-Chamarro E, Morioka Y, Li X, Niraula B, Petty A, Sanna A, Scilingo M, Shu Q, Sigmond M, Sun N, Tietsche S, Wu X, Yang Q and Yuan X (2023) SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899, Front. Mar. Sci. 10:1148899. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899 Open Access [CVC]
  13. Mayot, N., C. Le Quéré, C. Rödenbeck, R. Bernardello, L. Bopp, L. M. Djeutchouang, M. Gehlen, L. Gregor, N. Gruber, J. Hauck, Y. Iida, T. Ilyina, R. F. Keeling, P. Landschützer, A. C. Manning, L. Patara, L. Resplandy, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, A. J. Watson, R. M. Wright and J. Zeng (2023). Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi:10.1098/rsta.2022.0055. Open Access (4C) [CVC]
  14. Polkova, I., D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, D. Smith, J. Kröger, I. Bethke, X. Yang, L. Zhang, D. Nicolì, P. J. Athanasiadis, P. Karami, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, B. Wu, R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, S. Yang, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Merryfield, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, R. J. Matear (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770 Open Access [CVC]
  15. Saurral, R. and F. Piscitelli (2023). Dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of rainfall trends at the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.8233 [CVC]
  16. Saurral, R. and G. Raggio (2023). Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations shape air temperature distributions on the Antarctic Peninsula. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04598.8 [CVC]
  17. Xue, Y., I. Diallo, A.A. Boone, Y. Zhang, X. Zeng, W.K.M. Lau, J.D. Neelin, T. Yao, Q. Tang, T. Sato, M.-S. Koo, F. Vitart, C. Ardilouze, S.K Saha, S. Materia, Z. Lin, Y. Takaya, J. Yang, T. Nakamura, X. Qi, Y. Qin, P. Nobre, R. Senan, H. Wang, H. Zhang, M. Zhao, H.P. Nayak, Y. Pan, X. Pan, J. Feng, C. Shi, S. Xie, M.A. Brunke, Q. Bao, M.J. Bottino, T. Fan, S. Hong, Y. Lin, D. Peano, Y. Zhan, C.R. Mechoso, X. Ren, G. Balsamo, S.C. Chou, P. de Rosnay, P.J. van Oevelen, D. Klocke, M. Ek, X. Li, W. Guo, Y. Zhu, J. Tang, X.-Z. Liang, Y. Qian and P. Zhao (2023). Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5. Open Access [CVC]
  18. Zampieri, M., A. Toreti, M. Meroni, D. Bojovic, S. Octenjak, R. Marcos-Matamoros, S. Materia, L. Chang'a, M. Merchades, M. Chaves Montego, F. Rembold, A. Troccoli, I. Roy and I. Hoteit (2023). Seasonal forecasts of the rainy season onset over Africa: Preliminary results from the FOCUS-Africa project. Climate Services, 32, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100417. Open Access (FOCUS-Africa) [ESS, CVC]

2022

  1. Delgado-Torres, C., D. Verfaillie, E. Mohino and M.G. Donat (2022). Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 version of the EC-Earth coupled climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD036673, doi:10.1029/2022JD036673. (EUCP, AXA) [CVC]
  2. Dunn R. J. H., M.G. Donat and L.V. Alexander (2022). Comparing extremes indices in recent observational and reanalysis products. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 989505, doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.989505. Open Access [CVC]
  3. Dunstone, N., J. Lockwood, B. Solaraju-Murali, K. Reinhardt, E.E. Tsartsali, P.J. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, A. Brookshaw, L.-P. Caron, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Früh, N. González-Reviriego, S. Gualdi, L. Hermanson, S. Materia, A. Nicodemou, D. Nicolì, K. Pankatz, A. Paxian, A.A. Scaife, D. Smith and H.E. Thornton (2022). Towards useful decadal climate services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E1705–E1719, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0190.1. Open Access (C3C_34c) [CVC]
  4. Falls, M., R. Bernardello, M. Castrillo, M. Acosta, J. Llort, M. Galí (2022). Use of genetic algorithms for ocean model parameter optimisation: a case study using PISCES-v2_RC for North Atlantic particulate organic carbon. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5713-2022. Open Access (ORCAs, DeCUSO, OPERA) [CVC-CES]
  5. Feng, X., C. Qian, & S. Materia (2022). Amplification of the temperature seasonality in the Mediterranean region under anthropogenic climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, e2022GL099658. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099658. [CVC]
  6. Hariadi, M. H., G. van der Schrier, G.-J. Steeneveld, D. Nur Ratri, A. Sopaheluwakan, A. Klein Tank, E. Aldrian, D. Gunawan, M.-P. Moine, A. Bellucci, R. Senan, E. Tourigny, D. Ariyani Putrasahan, U. Ajie Linarka (2022). Evaluation of extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 regional climate model results and HighResMIP global climate models. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.7938. Open Access (PRIMAVERA) [CVC]
  7. Hochman, A., P. De Luca and T.K. Komacek (2022). Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth. Astrophys. J., 938, 114, doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac866f Open Access [CVC]
  8. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, C. Delgado-Torres, M. Samsó and P.-A. Bretonnière (2022). Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal time scales – a poor man's initialized prediction system. Earth System Dynamics, 13, 1437–1450, doi:10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022. Open Access (PATHFINDER, EUCP, AXA_Markus, RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  9. Michel, S., D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, P. Ortega, G. Gastineau, G.McCarthy, M. Khodri (2022). Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. Nature Communications, 13, 5176, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3. (RyC_Portega) [CVC]
  10. Ortega, P., E.W. Blockley, M. Køltzow, F. Massonnet, I. Sandu, G. Svensson, J.C. Acosta Navarro, G. Arduini, L. Batté, E. Bazile, M. Chevallier, R. Cruz-García, J.J. Day, T. Fichefet, D. Flocco, M. Gupta, K. Hartung, E. Hawkins, C. Hinrichs, L. Magnusson, E. Moreno-Chamarro, S. Pérez-Montero, L. Ponsoni, T. Semmler, D. Smith, J. Sterlin, M. Tjernström, I. Välisuo and T. Jung (2022). Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(10), E2203-E2213, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0083.1.​ Open Access (APPLICATE, RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  11. Simon, A., G. Gastineau, C. Frankignoul, V. Lapin and P. Ortega (2022). Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in winter. Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-69. Open Access (RyC_Portega, APPLICATE, INTAROS) [CVC]
  12. Simon A, S. M. Plecha, A. Russo, A. Teles-Machado, M. G. Donat, P.-A. Auger and R. M. Trigo (2022). Hot and cold marine extreme events in the Mediterranean over the period 1982-2021. [CVC] Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, 892201, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.892201 Open Access
working_groups/climate_prediction/cvc_sgr_papers.1771628945.txt.gz · Last modified: 2026/02/20 23:09 by portega

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