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working_groups:climate_prediction:publications

This is an old revision of the document!

Table of Contents

A list of the publications, either peer-reviewed or other types, can be found in this section. For those papers that are not open access, do not hesitate to send a message to any of us to request an open access copy of these papers.

You might also want to have a look at our series of technical memoranda.

When adding new publications, please, follow these formatting rules:

  • Naming convention: surname, initials first author, initials, surname following authors, (year of publication), title. Journal, volume, pages, doi, (project)
  • Link the pdf file of the publication to the first surname in the list of authors. Naming convention of the pdf file: username_journalname_year.pdf
  • Please follow the alphabetical and chronological ascending order
  • If your paper is open access please indicate and do not attach the paper to the first author

Peer-reviewed papers

2025

  1. Aalto, T., A. Tsuruta, J. Mäkelä, J. Müller, M. Tenkanen, E. Burke, S. Chadburn, Y. Gao, V. Mannisenaho, T. Kleinen, H. Lee, A. Leppänen, T. Markkanen, S. Materia, P.A. Miller, D. Peano, O. Peltola, B. Poulter, M. Raivonen, M. Saunois, D. Wårlind, and S. Zaehle: Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe, Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025 Open Access [CVC]
  2. Bilbao, R., T. J. Aubry, M. Toohey & P. Ortega (2025). The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption, Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 6239–6254, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025 . Open Access (IMPETUS4CHANGE, CONFESS) [CVC]
  3. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. Bilbao, A. Donohoe and S. Materia (2025). Record warmth of 2023 and 2024 was highly predictable and resulted from ENSO transition and Northern Hemisphere absorbed shortwave anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115614, doi:10.1029/2025GL115614. Open Access [CVC]
  4. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, J. Robson, A. Teles-Machado, and P. Ortega (2025). A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025. Open Access (IMPETUS4CHANGE) [CVC]
  5. Chen H., P. De Luca, A. Hochman and T.D. Komacek (2025). Effects of transient stellar emissions on planetary climates of tidally-locked exo-earths. The Astronomical Journal, 170, 40. Open Access [CVC]
  6. Choquehuanca, B., A. Godoy and R. Saurral (2025). Assessing the skill of high-impact weather forecasts in southern South America: a study on cut-off lows. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 6, 317, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1063. Open Access [CVC]
  7. Cvijanovic, I., A. Simon, X. Levine, R. White, P. Ortega, M. Donat, D.D. Lucas, J.C.H. Chiang, A. Seidenglanz, D. Bojovic, A. Ramos Amaral, V. Lapin, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and D. Petrova (2025). Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 154, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02059-w. Open Access [CVC,ESS,GES]
  8. Delgado-Torres, C., S. Octenjak, R. Marcos-Matamoros, N. Pérez-Zanón, E. Baulenas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M.G. Donat, L.M. Lwiza, N. Milders, A. Soret, S. Whittlesey and D. Bojovic (2025). Supporting food security with multi-annual climate information: Co-production of climate services for the Southern African Development Community. Science of The Total Environment, 975, 179259, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179259. Open Access [ESS,CVC,GES] (ASPECT, FOCUS-Africa, PATHFINDER)
  9. Dinasquet, J., D.S. Hamilton, I.M. Leyba, J. Llort, T. Marshall, R.R. de Oliveira, M.M.G Perron, L. Tinel, V. Garçon, C. Marandino, N. Steiner, D. Wallace and L. Li, (2025). Thriving Through Synergy: Fostering a SOLAS Science Community Built on Equity, International Connections, and the Integration of Early Career Scientists. Oceanography 38, 31–35. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2025.140. Open Access [CVC, AC]
  10. Gaymer C.F., D. Wagner, R. Alvarez-Varas, B. Boteler, L. Bravo, C.M. Brooks, V. Chavez-Molina, D. Currie, J. Delgado, B. Dewitte, E.E. Easton, A.M. Friedlander, M.A. Gallardo, M. Gianni, K. Gjerde, M. Gorny, S. Hormazabal, R. Hucke-Gaete, G. Luna-Jorquera, A. Mecho, N. Morales-Serrano, L. Morgan, P. Nuñez, M. Ramos, J. Rapu, C. Rodrigo, J. Sellanes, E. Soto, M. Thiel, L. Van der Meer and D. Veliz (2025). Research advances and conservation needs for an effective protection of the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges: a natural and cultural heritage hotspot in the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Marine Policy, 171, 106453, doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106453. Open Access [CVC]
  11. Gulizia, C., R. Saurral and I. Camilloni (2025). Potential effects of stratospheric aerosol injection on the mean and extreme climate of South America. Environmental Research: Climate, 4, 045004, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae065a. Open Access [CVC]
  12. Kotz, M., M.G. Donat, T. Lancaster, M. Parker, P. Smith, A. Taylor, S.H. Vetter (2025). Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks. Environmental Research Letters, 20:081001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f Open Access [CVC]
  13. Kotz, M., T. Amano, J.E.M. Watson (2025). Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification. Nature Ecology & Evolution, doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02811-7 [CVC]
  14. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, V. Lapin, E. Tourigny & F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2025). Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1923–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025 . Open Access (ASPECT) [CVC]
  15. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, F. J. Doblas-Reyes & E. Tourigny (2025). A Perfect-Model Perspective on the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Initialized Decadal Predictions, Journal of Climate, 38, 2841–2851, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0381.1. Open Access (PRECEDE, ASPECT, PATHFINDER, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  16. Mahmood, R., S. Yang, M. G. Donat (2025). Constraining the NAO-temperature teleconnection in CMIP6 simulations enables skillful multi-annual predictions of Eurasian winter climate, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (7), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adde75 Open Access (Impetus4Change) [CVC]
  17. Martin-Martinez, E., A. Frigola, E. Moreno-Chamarro, D. Kuznetsova, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, M. Samsó Cabré, P.-A. Bretonnière, and P. Ortega (2025). Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations, Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1343–1364, doi:10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025 Open Access (STREAM, EERIE, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  18. Moreno-Chamarro, E., T. Arsouze, M. Acosta, P.-A. Bretonnière, M. Castrillo, E. Ferrer, A. Frigola, D. Kuznetsova, E. Martin-Martinez, P. Ortega and S. Palomas (2025). The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 461–482, doi:10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, STREAM, EERIE) [CVC, CES]
  19. Palomas, S., M. C. Acosta, G. Utrera, E. Tourigny (2025). Reducing time and computing costs in EC-Earth: an automatic load-balancing approach for coupled Earth system models. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 3081–3098, 2024, doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025. Open Access (OEMES (PID2020-116324RA-I00), ISENES3 (H2020-GA-824084), ESiWACE3 (101093054)) [CES, CVC]
  20. Reid, K. J., M.A. Barnes, Z.E. Gillett, T. Parker, D.G. Udy, H. Ayat, G. Boschat, A. Bowden, N. Grosfeld, A.D. King, D. Richardson, Y. Shao, L. Teckentrup, B. Trewin, P. Hope, L. Zhou, A.R. Borowiak, C.M. Holgate and R.N. Isphording (2025). A multiscale evaluation of the wet 2022 in Eastern Australia. Journal of Climate, 38, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0224.1. Open Access [CVC]
  21. Roldán-Gómez, P.J., P. De Luca, R. Bernardello and M.G. Donat (2025). Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries. Earth System Dynamics, 16, 1–27, doi:10.5194/esd-16-1-2025. Open Access (RESCUE, PRECEDE) [CVC]
  22. Roldán-Gómez, P. J., P. Ortega, and M. G. Donat (2025). Contribution of meridional overturning circulation and sea ice changes to large-scale temperature asymmetries in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios, Ocean Science, 21, 2283–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025. Open Access (RESCUE, PRECEDE) [CVC]
  23. Roberts, M. J., K. A. Reed, Q. Bao, J. J. Barsugli, S. J. Camargo, L.-P. Caron, P. Chang, C.-T. Chen, H. M. Christensen, G. Danabasoglu, I. Frenger, N. S. Fučkar, S. U. Hasson, H. T. Hewitt, H. Huang, D. Kim, C. Kodama, M. Lai, L.-Y. R. Leung, R. Mizuta, P. Nobre, P. Ortega, D. Paquin, C. D. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, J. Seddon, A. M. Treguier, C.-Y. Tu, P. A. Ullrich, P. L. Vidale, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, B. Zhang, W. Zhang, and M. Zhao (2025). High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7, Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 1307–1332. Open Access (EERIE) [CVC]
  24. Saurral, R., F. Doblas-Reyes, J. Screen, J. Catto, S. Hay, and H. Yu (2025). Western Mediterranean droughts fostered by Arctic sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 38, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0066.1. Open access (Polar2MidLat,AI4S)[CVC]
  25. Saurral, R., J. Screen, and F. Doblas-Reyes (2025) Model-dependent response of low clouds to Arctic sea-ice loss. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (18), doi:10.1029/2025GL117035 Open Access (Polar2MidLat,AI4S)[CVC]
  26. Solaraju-Murali, B., Torralba, V., Delgado-Torres, C., Donat, M.G., Cos, P., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., (2025). Constraining decadal climate predictions with seasonal forecasts: a step toward seamless multi-year climate information. https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1748-9326/adfd73. Open Access [ESS,CVC] (ASPECT, BOREAS)
  27. Trascasa-Castro, P, Y. Ruprich-Robert and A.C. Maycock (2025). Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues. npj Clim Atmos Sci, 8, 116. Open access [ESS, CVC]
  28. Verjans, V., C.L.E. Franzke, S.S. Lee, I.W. Kim, S. Tilmes, D.M. Lawrence, F. Vitt and F. Li (2025). Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions. Science Advances, 11, doi:10.1126/sciadv.adt5088. Open Access [CVC]
  29. Verjans, V., Robel, A. A., Ultee, L., Seroussi, H., Thompson, A. F., Ackermann, L., Choi, Y., and Krebs-Kanzow, U. (2025). The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025. Open Access [CVC]

2024

  1. Alonso, G., C. Simionato, M. Dinápoli, R. Saurral and N. Bodnariuk (2024). Positive storm surges in the Río de la Plata estuary: forcings, long-term variability, trends and linkage with Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf dynamics. Natural Hazards, doi:1007/s11069-024-06402-w. [CVC]
  2. Badagian, J., M. Barreiro and R. Saurral (2024). Evaluation of subseasonal precipitation forecasts in the Uruguay River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.8634 [CVC]
  3. Bernardello, R., V. Sicardi, V. Lapin, P. Ortega, Y. Ruprich-Robert, E. Tourigny and E. Ferrer (2024). Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake. Earth System Dynamics, doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024. Open Access (4C, CDRESM) [CVC]
  4. Bianco, E., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, S. Materia, P. Ruggieri, D. Iovino, and S. Masina (2024) CMIP6 models underestimate Arctic sea ice loss during the Early Twentieth-Century Warming, despite simulating large low-frequency sea ice variability. J. Climate, in press, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0647.1. [CVC]
  5. Bianco, E., D. Iovino, S. Masina, S. Materia, and P. Ruggieri (2024). The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. The Cryosphere, 18, 2357–2379doi:10.5194/esd-15-501-2024. [CVC]
  6. Bilbao, R., P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, P. Athanasiadis, R. Eade, M. Devilliers, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, A.-C. Ho, W. Merryfield, J. Mignot, D. Nicolì, M. Samsó, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, X. Wu and S. Yeager (2024). Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 501-525, doi:10.5194/esd-15-501-2024. Open Access [CVC,GES]
  7. Campana, P.E., B. Stridth, T. Hörndahl, S.-E. Svensson, S. Zainali, S. Ma Lu, T.E.K. Zidane, P. De Luca, S. Amaducci and M. Colauzzi (2024). Experimental results, integrated model validation, and economic aspects of agrivoltaic systems at northern latitudes. Journal of Cleaner Production, 437, 140235, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140235. Open Access [CVC]
  8. Cos, P., R. Marcos-Matamoros, M. Donat, R. Mahmood and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Near-term Mediterranean summer temperature climate projections: A comparison of constraining methods. Journal of Climate, 37, 4367–4388, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1. Open Access (ASPECT, PATHFINDER, AXA Award Donat) [ESS,GES]
  9. Crochemore, L., S. Materia, E. Delpiazzo, S. Bagli, A. Borrelli, F. Bosello, E. Contreras, F. Dalla Valle, S. Gualdi, J. Herrero, F. Larosa, R. Lopez, V. Luzzi, P. Mazzoli, A. Montani, I. Moreno, V. Pavan, I. Pechlivanidis, F. Tomei, G. Villani, C. Photiadou, M.J. Polo and Mysiak, J. (2024). A framework for joint verification and evaluation of seasonal climate services across socio-economic sectors. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0026.1. [CVC]
  10. Dinápoli, M., C. Simionato, G. Alonso, N. Bodnariuk, and R. Saurral (2024). Negative storm surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: mechanisms, variability, trends and linkage with the Continental Shelf dynamics. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108844. [CVC]
  11. De Luca, P., M. Braam, T.D. Komacek and A. Hochman (2024). The impact of Ozone on Earth-like exoplanet climate dynamics: the case of Proxima Centauri b. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, stae1199, doi:10.1093/mnras/stae1199. Open Access [CVC]
  12. Donat, M.G., R. Mahmood, P. Cos, P. Ortega and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035013, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463. Open Access (ASPECT, EXPECT, PRECEDE, PATHFINDER, SGR2021_CVC) [CVC]
  13. Dunn, R.J.H., N. Herold, L.V. Alexander, M.G. Donat, R. Allan, M. Bador et al. (2024). Observed global changes in sector-relevant climate extremes indices—An extension to HadEX3. Earth and Space Science, 11, e2023EA003279, doi:10.1029/2023EA003279. Open Access (LANDMARC) [CVC]
  14. Gittings, J.A., G., Dall’Olmo, W., Tang, J., Llort, F., Jebri, E., Livanou, F., Nencioli, S., Darmaraki, I., Theodorou, R.J.W., Brewin, M., Srokosz, N., Cassar, R.E., Raitsos (2024). An exceptional phytoplankton bloom in the southeast Madagascar Sea driven by African dust deposition. PNAS Nexus 3, pgae386. PNAS Nexus 3, pgae386, doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae386 Open Access (PYROPLANKTON) [CVC]
  15. Hieronymus, J., M. Hieronymus, M. Gröger, J. Schwinger, R. Bernadello, E. Tourigny, V. Sicardi, I. Ruvalcaba Baroni, and K. Wyser (2024). Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century, Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, doi:10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024. Open Access (NetNPPAO) [CVC]
  16. Jones, C.G., Adloff, F., Booth, B. B. B., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Frieler, K., Hewitt, H. T., Jeffery, H. A., Joussaume, S., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, B. N., O'Rourke, E., Roberts, M. J., Sanderson, B. M., Séférian, R., Somot, S., Vidale, P. L., van Vuuren, D., Acosta, M., Bentsen, M., Bernardello, R., Betts, R., Blockley, E., Boé, J., Bracegirdle, T., Braconnot, P., Brovkin, V., Buontempo, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Donat, M., Epicoco, I., Falloon, P., Fiore, S., Frölicher, T., Fučkar, N. S., Gidden, M. J., Goessling, H. F., Graversen, R. G., Gualdi, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Ilyina, T., Jacob, D., Jones, C. D., Juckes, M., Kendon, E., Kjellström, E., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Mizielinski, M., Nassisi, P., Obersteiner, M., Regnier, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Schleussner, C.-F., Schulz, M., Scoccimarro, E., Terray, L., Thiemann, H., Wood, R. A., Yang, S., and Zaehle, S. (2024). Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1319–1351, doi:10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024. Open Access [CVC, CES]
  17. Kim, W., Y. Ruprich-Robert, A. Zhao, S. Yeager and J. Robson (2024). North Atlantic response to observed North Atlantic Oscillation surface heat flux in three climate models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0301.1. [CVC]
  18. De Luca, P., B. Jiménez-Esteve, L. Degenhardt, S. Schemm and S. Pfahl (2024). Enhanced blocking frequencies in very-high resolution idealized climate model simulations Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL111016, doi:10.1029/2024GL111016. Open Access (HEU DeCaGloPreCEs) [CVC]
  19. Martín-Gómez, V., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Polo and M. Martín-Rey (2024). Observed global mean state changes modulating the collective influence of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans on ENSO. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0450.1.(ReSPoNSe) [CVC]
  20. Materia S., L. Palma-García, C. Straaten, S. O, A. Mamalakis, L. Cavicchia, D. Coumou, P. de Luca, M. Kretschmer, M. Donat (2024). Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives. WIREs Climate Change, e914, doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  21. Meis, M., M. Sued, R. Saurral and P. Menéndez (2024). A novel statistically-based approach to regionalize extreme precipitation events using temperature data. Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-024-06805-9. [CVC]
  22. Meroni, M., P. Vojonovic, M. Zampieri, S. Materia, F. Rembold, O. Kipkogei and A. Toreti (2024). Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts. Climate Services, 33, 100434, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434. Open Access (FocusAFRICA) [CVC]
  23. Mohino, E., P.-A. Monerie, J. Mignot, M. Diakhaté, M. Donat, C.D. Roberts and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2024). Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 15–40, doi:10.5194/esd-15-15-2024. Open Access [CVC,GES]
  24. Montoro-Mendoza, A., C. Calvo-Sancho, J.J. González-Alemán, J. Díaz-Fernández, P. Bolgiani, M. Sastre, E. Moreno-Chamarro and M.L. Martín (2024). Environments conductive to tropical transitions in the North Atlantic: Anthropogenic climate change influence study. Atmospheric Research, p.107609, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107609. Open Access [CVC]
  25. Petrova, I.Y., D. G. Miralles, F. Brient, M. G. Donat, S.-K. Min, Y.-H. Kim, M. Bador (2024), Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells. Nature 633, 594–600. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07887-y Open Access (LANDMARC, EXPECT) [CVC]
  26. Plésiat, É., R.J.H. Dunn, M. G. Donat and C. Kadow (2024). Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records. Nature Communications 15, 9191. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53464-2. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  27. Renault, L., T. Arsouze, F. Desbiolles, et al. (2024). Rectification effects of regional air–sea interactions over western boundary current on large-scale sea surface temperature and extra-tropical storm tracks. Scientific Reports, 14, 31771, doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82667-2. Open Access (PRIMAVERA) [CVC]
  28. Sillmann, J., T. H. Raupach, K. Findell, M. Donat, L. M. Alves, L. Alexander, et al. (2024). Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Frontiers in Climate 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765. Open Access (EXPECT) [CVC]
  29. Sospedra-Alfonso, R., William J. Merryfield; Matthew Toohey; Claudia Timmreck; Jean Paul Vernier; Ingo Bethke; Yiguo Wang; Roberto Bilbao; Markus G. Donat; Pablo Ortega; Jason Cole; Woo-Sung Lee; Thomas L. Delworth; David Paynter; Fanrong Zeng; Liping Zhang; Myriam Khodri; Juliette Mignot; Didier Swingedouw; Olivier Torres; Shuai Hu; Wenmin Man; Meng Zuo; Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Takahito Kataoka; Hiroaki Tatebe: Decadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption. BAMS, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0111.1 Open Access (CONFESS) [CVC]
  30. Steenbeek, J., P. Ortega, R. Bernardello, V. Christensen, M. Coll, E. Exarchou, A. Fuster-Alonso, R. Heneghan, L. Juliá Melis, M. G. Pennino, D. Rivas and N. Keenlyside (2024). Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories. Eart's Future, 12, e2023EF004295. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004295 Open Access (TRIATLAS) [CVC]
  31. Teckentrup, L., De Kauwe, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Warlind, David, Ukkola, A. M., and Smith, B. (2024). Resolving Uncertainty in the Response of Australia's Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Projected Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111398. Open Access [CVC, ESS]
  32. Torralba, V., S. Materia, L. Cavicchia, M.C. Álvarez-Castro, C. Prodhomme, R. McAdam, E. Scoccimarro, and S. Gualdi (2024). Nighttime heat waves in the Euro-Mediterranean region: definition, characterisation, and seasonal prediction. Environmental Research Letters, 19(3), 034001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad24cf Open Access (ARTIST S. Materia) [ESS, CVC]
  33. Woolnough, S.J., F. Vitart, A.W. Robertson, C.A.S. Coelho, R. Lee, H. Lin, A. Kumar, C. Stan, M. Balmaseda, N. Caltabiano, M. Yamaguchi, H. Afargan-Gerstman, V.L. Boult, F.M. De Andrade, D. Büeler, A. Carreric, D.A. Campos Diaz, J. Day, J. Dorrington, M. Feldmann, J.C. Furtado, C.M. Grams, R. Koster, L. Hirons, V.S. Indasi, P. Jadhav, Y. Liu, P. Nying’uro, C.D. Roberts, E. Rouges and J. Ryu (2024). Celebrating 10 years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and looking to the future. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0323.1. Open Access (STARS cofund A. Carreric) [CVC, ESS]
  34. Zhang, S., Y. Pan, Y. Xue, I. Diallo, X. Zeng, S. Li, J.D. Neelin, W.K.M. Lau, A.A. Boone, F. Vitart, T. Yao, Q. Tang, T. Sato, M.S. Koo, C. Ardilouze, S.K.Saha, J. Yang, S. Materia, Z. Lin, X. Qi, Y. Qin, T. Nakamura, P. Nobre, D. Peano, R. Senan, Y. Takaya, H. Wang, H. Zhang, Y. Zhan, M. Zhao, C.R. Mechoso, Q. Bao, M.J. Bottino, S. Hong, Y. Lin, S. Xie, X. Pan, H.P. Nayak, S.C. Chou, W. Guo (2024). Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment. Clim Dyn 62, 2907–2924. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07210-5. Open Access [CVC]

2023

  1. Hochman, A., T.D., Komacek and P. De Luca (2023). Analogous response of temperate terrestrial exoplanets and Earth’s climate dynamics to greenhouse gas supplement. Scientific Reports, 13, 11123, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38026-8 Open Access (MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  2. Acosta, M. C., S. Palomas and E. Tourigny (2023). Balancing EC-Earth3 improving the performance of EC-Earth CMIP6 configurations by minimizing the coupling cost. Earth and Space Science, 10, e2023EA002912, doi:10.1029/2023EA002912. Open Access (OEMES) [CES, CVC]
  3. Ayache, M., J.-C. Dutay, K. Tachikawa, T. Arsouze and C. Jeandel (2023). Neodymium budget in the Mediterranean Sea: evaluating the role of atmospheric dusts using a high-resolution dynamical-biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 20, 205–227, doi:10.5194/bg-20-205-2023. Open Access [CVC]
  4. Brewin, R.J.W., S. Sathyendranath, G. Kulk, M.-H. Rio, J.A. Concha, T.G. Bell, A. Bracher, C. Fichot, T.L. Frölicher, M. Galí, D.A. Hansell, T.S. Kostadinov, C. Mitchell, A.R. Neeley, E. Organelli, K. Richardson, C. Rousseaux, F. Shen, D. Stramski, M. Tzortziou, A.J. Watson, C.I. Addey, M. Bellacicco, H. Bouman, D. Carroll, I. Cetinić, G. Dall’Olmo, R. Frouin, J. Hauck, M. Hieronymi, C. Hu, V. Ibello, B. Jönsson, C.E. Kong, Z. Kovač, M. Laine, J. Lauderdale, S. Lavender, E. Livanou, J. Llort, L. Lorinczi, M. Nowicki, N.A. Pradisty, S. Psarra, D.E. Raitsos, A.B. Ruescas, J.L. Russell, J. Salisbury, R. Sanders, J.D. Shutler, X. Sun, F.G. Taboada, G. Tilstone, X. Wei and D.K. Woolf (2023). Ocean carbon from space: Current status and priorities for the next decade. Earth-Science Reviews, 240, 104386, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104386. (PYROPLANKTON) Open Access [CVC]
  5. Cañete, J.I., M.S. Romero, E.E. Easton, A. Mecho and J. Sellanes (2023). Chloeia rozbaczyloi, a new species of polychaete (Archinominae: Amphinomidae) and first record of the family for the Nazca Ridge, southeastern Pacific Ocean. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 104110, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2023.104110. Open Access [CVC]
  6. Delgado-Torres, C., M. G. Donat, A. Soret, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P.-A. Bretonnière, A.-C. Ho, N. Pérez-Zanón, M. Samsó Cabré, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1. Open Access (ASPECT) [CVC-ESS]
  7. De Luca, P., C. Delgado-Torres, R. Mahmood, M. Samsó and M. G. Donat (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054, https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf389 Open Access (LANDMARC, ASPECT, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  8. De Luca, P., & M. G. Donat (2023). Projected changes in hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes over global land regions. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102493. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102493. Open Access (LANDMARC, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  9. Donat, M. G., C. Delgado-Torres, P. De Luca, R. Mahmood, P. Ortega and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102466. Open Access (LANDMARC, ASPECT, SGR2021_CVC, AXA_Award_Donat, MSCA_Paolo) [CVC]
  10. Findell, K. L., R. Sutton, N. Caltabiano, A. Brookshaw, P. Heimbach, M. Kimoto, S. Osprey, D. Smith, J. S. Risbey, Z. Wang, L. Cheng, L. Diaz, M. G. Donat, M. Ek, J. Lee, S. Minobe, M. Rusticucci, F. Vitart, L. Wang (2023). Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 104(1), E325-E339, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1. Open Access [CVC]
  11. González-Alemán, J. J., D. Insua-Costa, E. Bazile, S. González-Herrero, M. Marcello Miglietta, P. Groenemeijer, M. G. Donat (2023). Anthropogenic Warming Had a Crucial Role in Triggering the Historic and Destructive Mediterranean Derecho in Summer 2022. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(8), E1526-E1532. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0119.1 Open Access [CVC]
  12. Huang, H., W.D. Collins, C.M. Patricola, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P.A. Ullrich and A.J. Baker (2023). Contrasting responses of Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102959, doi:10.1029/2023GL102959. Open Access (laCaixa, ReSPonSe) [CVC]
  13. Hamilton, D.S., A.R. Baker, Y. Iwamoto, S. Gassó, E. Bergas-Masso, S. Deutch, J. Dinasquet, Y. Kondo, J. Llort, S. Myriokefalitakis, M.M.G. Perron, A. Wegmann, J. Yoon, (2023). An aerosol odyssey: Navigating nutrient flux changes to marine ecosystems. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 37, 11, doi:10.1525/elementa.2023.00037Open Access(PYROPLANKTON-ESA)[AC,CVC]
  14. Lacour, L., J. Llort, N. Briggs, P.G. Strutton and P.W. Boyd (2023). Seasonality of downward carbon export in the Pacific Southern Ocean revealed by multi-year robotic observations. Nature Communications, 14, 1278, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36954-7. Open Access (MSCA-STARS MESH) [ES-CVC]
  15. Laepple, T., E. Ziegler, N. Weitzel, R. Hébert, B. Ellerhoff, P. Schoch, B. Martrat, O. Bothe, E. Moreno-Chamarro, M. Chevalier, A. Herbert and K. Rehfeld (2023). Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales. Nature Geosciences, 16, 958–966, doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9. [CVC]
  16. Liu, Y., M.G. Donat, M.H. England, L.V. Alexander, A.L. Hirsch and C. Delgado-Torres (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9. Open Access (ASPECT, AXA Chair) [CVC, ESS]
  17. Martín-Gómez, V., Y. Ruprich-Robert, R. Bernardello, E. Tourigny, M. Donat, P. Ortega and M. Samso Cabré (2023). Large spread in interannual variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models. npj-Climate and atmospheric sciences, 6, doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x. Open Access (ReSPonSe, 4C, LANDMARC) [CVC]
  18. Massonnet F, Barreira S, Barthélemy A, Bilbao R, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Blockley E, Bromwich DH, Bushuk M, Dong X, Goessling HF, Hobbs W, Iovino D, Lee W-S, Li C, Meier WN, Merryfield WJ, Moreno-Chamarro E, Morioka Y, Li X, Niraula B, Petty A, Sanna A, Scilingo M, Shu Q, Sigmond M, Sun N, Tietsche S, Wu X, Yang Q and Yuan X (2023) SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899, Front. Mar. Sci. 10:1148899. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899 Open Access [CVC]
  19. Mayot, N., C. Le Quéré, C. Rödenbeck, R. Bernardello, L. Bopp, L. M. Djeutchouang, M. Gehlen, L. Gregor, N. Gruber, J. Hauck, Y. Iida, T. Ilyina, R. F. Keeling, P. Landschützer, A. C. Manning, L. Patara, L. Resplandy, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, A. J. Watson, R. M. Wright and J. Zeng (2023). Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi:10.1098/rsta.2022.0055. Open Access (4C) [CVC]
  20. O'Reilly, C.H., M. Patterson, J. Robson, P.-A. Monerie, D. Hodson and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2023). Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00335-0. Open Access (ReSPonSe, laCaixa) [CVC]
  21. Polkova, I., D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, D. Smith, J. Kröger, I. Bethke, X. Yang, L. Zhang, D. Nicolì, P. J. Athanasiadis, P. Karami, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, B. Wu, R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, S. Yang, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Merryfield, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, R. J. Matear (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770 Open Access [CVC]
  22. Saurral, R. and F. Piscitelli (2023). Dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of rainfall trends at the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.8233 [CVC]
  23. Saurral, R. and G. Raggio (2023). Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations shape air temperature distributions on the Antarctic Peninsula. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04598.8 [CVC]
  24. Xue, Y., I. Diallo, A.A. Boone, Y. Zhang, X. Zeng, W.K.M. Lau, J.D. Neelin, T. Yao, Q. Tang, T. Sato, M.-S. Koo, F. Vitart, C. Ardilouze, S.K Saha, S. Materia, Z. Lin, Y. Takaya, J. Yang, T. Nakamura, X. Qi, Y. Qin, P. Nobre, R. Senan, H. Wang, H. Zhang, M. Zhao, H.P. Nayak, Y. Pan, X. Pan, J. Feng, C. Shi, S. Xie, M.A. Brunke, Q. Bao, M.J. Bottino, T. Fan, S. Hong, Y. Lin, D. Peano, Y. Zhan, C.R. Mechoso, X. Ren, G. Balsamo, S.C. Chou, P. de Rosnay, P.J. van Oevelen, D. Klocke, M. Ek, X. Li, W. Guo, Y. Zhu, J. Tang, X.-Z. Liang, Y. Qian and P. Zhao (2023). Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5. Open Access [CVC]
  25. Zampieri, M., A. Toreti, M. Meroni, D. Bojovic, S. Octenjak, R. Marcos-Matamoros, S. Materia, L. Chang'a, M. Merchades, M. Chaves Montego, F. Rembold, A. Troccoli, I. Roy and I. Hoteit (2023). Seasonal forecasts of the rainy season onset over Africa: Preliminary results from the FOCUS-Africa project. Climate Services, 32, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100417. Open Access (FOCUS-Africa) [ESS, CVC]

2022

  1. Acosta Navarro, J.C., J. García-Serrano, V. Lapin and P. Ortega (2022). Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 17, 064008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b Open Access (CMUG, INTAROS, APPLIDATE) [CVC]
  2. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra (2022). Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model. Climate Dynamics, 58, 1311–1328, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y. Open Access (RyC_Pablo, EUCP) [CVC]
  3. Delgado-Torres, C., D. Verfaillie, E. Mohino and M.G. Donat (2022). Representation and annual to decadal predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the CMIP6 version of the EC-Earth coupled climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD036673, doi:10.1029/2022JD036673. (EUCP, AXA) [CVC]
  4. Delgado-Torres, C., M.G. Donat, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, L-P. Caron, P.J. Athanasiadis, P.A. Bretonnière, N.J. Dunstone, A. Ho, D. Nicoli, K. Pankatz, A. Paxian, N. Pérez-Zanón, M.S. Cabré, B. Solaraju-Murali, A. Soret and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2022). Multi-model forecast quality assessment of CMIP6 decadal predictions. Journal of Climate, 35, 4363-4382, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0811.1. (EUCP, C3S_34c) [CVC]
  5. Della Penna, A., J. Llort, S. Moreau, R. Patel, R. Kloser, P. Gaube, P. Strutton and P.W. Boyd (2022). The impact of a Southern Ocean cyclonic eddy on mesopelagic micronekton. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 127, e2022JC018893, doi:10.1029/2022JC018893. Open Access (MESH-STARS J.Llort) [CVC]
  6. Döscher, R., M. Acosta, A. Alessandri, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth,T. Arsouze, T. Bergmann, R. Bernadello, S. Bousetta, L.-P. Caron, G. Carver, M. Castrillo, F. Catalano, I. Cvijanovic, P. Davini, E. Dekker, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Docquier, P. Echevarria, U. Fladrich, R. Fuentes-Franco, M. Gröger, J. v. Hardenberg, J. Hieronymus, M.P. Karami, J.-P. Keskinen, T. Koenigk, R. Makkonen, F. Massonnet, M. Ménégoz, P.A. Miller, E. Moreno-Chamarro, L. Nieradzik, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, D. O’Donnell, P. Ollinaho, G. van den Oord, P. Ortega, O. Tintó Prims, A. Ramos, T. Reerink, C. Rousset, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P. Le Sager, T. Schmith, R. Schrödner, F. Serva, V. Sicardi, M. Sloth Madsen, B. Smith, T. Tian, E. Tourigny, P. Uotila, M. Vancoppenolle, S. Wang, D. Wårlind, U. Willén, K. Wyser, S. Yang, X. Yepes-Arbós and Q. Zhang (2022). The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6. Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 2973–3020, doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-446. [CVC]
  7. Donat, M.G. (2022). Marine heatwaves are reliably forecast by climate models. Nature, 604, 432-433, doi:10.1038/d41586-022-01028-z. [CVC]
  8. Du, H., M.G. Donat, S. Zong, L.V. Alexander, R. Manzanas, A. Kruger, G. Choi, J. Salinger, H.S. He, M. Li, F. Fujibe, B. Nandintsetseg, S. Rehman, F. Abbas, M. Rusticucci, A. Srivastava, P. Zhai, T. Lippmann, I. Yabi, M.C. Stambaugh, S. Wang, A. Batbold, P.T. d. Oliveira, M. Adrees, W. Hou, C.M.S. e. Silva, P.S. Lucio and Z. Wu (2022). Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E1134-E1149, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1. Open Access (RyC_Markus, EUCP) [CVC]
  9. Dunn R. J. H., M.G. Donat and L.V. Alexander (2022). Comparing extremes indices in recent observational and reanalysis products. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 989505, doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.989505. Open Access [CVC]
  10. Dunstone, N., J. Lockwood, B. Solaraju-Murali, K. Reinhardt, E.E. Tsartsali, P.J. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, A. Brookshaw, L.-P. Caron, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Früh, N. González-Reviriego, S. Gualdi, L. Hermanson, S. Materia, A. Nicodemou, D. Nicolì, K. Pankatz, A. Paxian, A.A. Scaife, D. Smith and H.E. Thornton (2022). Towards useful decadal climate services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E1705–E1719, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0190.1. Open Access (C3C_34c) [CVC]
  11. Falls, M., R. Bernardello, M. Castrillo, M. Acosta, J. Llort, M. Galí (2022). Use of genetic algorithms for ocean model parameter optimisation: a case study using PISCES-v2_RC for North Atlantic particulate organic carbon. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5713-2022. Open Access (ORCAs, DeCUSO, OPERA) [CVC-CES]
  12. Feng, X., C. Qian, & S. Materia (2022). Amplification of the temperature seasonality in the Mediterranean region under anthropogenic climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, e2022GL099658. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099658. [CVC]
  13. Galí, M., M. Falls, H. Claustre, O. Aumont, R. Bernardello (2022). Bridging the gaps between particulate backscattering measurements and modeled particulate organic carbon in the ocean. Biogeosciences, doi:10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022 Open Access (ORCAs, DeCUSO, OPERA) [CVC]
  14. Hariadi, M. H., G. van der Schrier, G.-J. Steeneveld, D. Nur Ratri, A. Sopaheluwakan, A. Klein Tank, E. Aldrian, D. Gunawan, M.-P. Moine, A. Bellucci, R. Senan, E. Tourigny, D. Ariyani Putrasahan, U. Ajie Linarka (2022). Evaluation of extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 regional climate model results and HighResMIP global climate models. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.7938. Open Access (PRIMAVERA) [CVC]
  15. Hermanson, L., D. Smith, M. Seabrook, R. Bilbao, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, E. Tourigny, V. Lapin, V.V. Kharin, W.J. Merryfield, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, P. Athanasiadis, D. Nicoli, S. Gualdi, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, A.A. Scaife, M. Collier, T. O’Kane, V. Kitsios, P. Sandery, K. Pankatz, B. Früh, H. Pohlmann, W. Müller, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, M. Ishii, Y. Imada, T. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, M.P. Karami, S. Yang, T. Tian, L. Zhang, T. Delworth, X. Yang, F. Zeng, Y. Wang, F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, J. Lean, J. Luterbacher, R.K. Kolli and A. Kumar (2022). WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A prediction for 2021-2025. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1. Open Access (EUCP, RES) [CVC]
  16. Hochman, A., P. De Luca and T.K. Komacek (2022). Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth. Astrophys. J., 938, 114, doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac866f Open Access [CVC]
  17. Hodson, D.L.R., P.-A. Bretonnière, C. Cassou, P. Davini, N.P. Klingaman, K. Lohmann, J. Lopez-Parages, M. Martín-Rey, M.-P. Moine, P.-A. Monerie, D.A. Putrasahan, C.D. Roberts, J. Robson, Y. Ruprich-Robert, E. Sanchez-Gomez, J. Seddon and R. Senan (2022). Coupled climate response to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a multi-model multi-resolution ensemble. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06157-9. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, INADEC) [CVC]
  18. Kilbourne, H., A. Wanamaker, P. Moffa-Sanchez, D. Reynolds, D. Amrhein, P. Butler, G. Gebbie, M. Goes, M. Jansen, C. Little, M. Mette, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, B. Otto-Bliesner, T. Rossby, J. Scourse and N. Whitney (2022). Atlantic circulation change still uncertain. | Nature Geoscience, 15, 165-167, doi:10.1038/s41561-022-00896-4. (RyC_Portega, PARAMOUR) [CVC]
  19. Langehaug, H.R., P. Ortega, F. Counillon, D. Matei, E. Maroon, N. Keenlyside, J. Mignot, Y. Wang, D. Swingedouw, I. Bethke, S. Yang, G. Danabasoglu, A. Bellucci, P. Ruggieri, D. Nicolì and M. Årthun (2022). Propagation of thermohaline anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway. Journal of Climate, 35, 2111–2131, 2022, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1. Open Access (RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  20. Mahmood, R., M. G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, C. Delgado-Torres, M. Samsó and P.-A. Bretonnière (2022). Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal time scales – a poor man's initialized prediction system. Earth System Dynamics, 13, 1437–1450, doi:10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022. Open Access (PATHFINDER, EUCP, AXA_Markus, RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  21. Materia, S., C. Ardilouze, C. Prodhomme, M.G. Donat, M. Benassi, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Peano, L.-P. Caron, P. Ruggieri and S. Gualdi (2022). Summer temperature response to extreme soil water conditions in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime. Climate Dynamics, 58, 1943–1963, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05815-8. Open Access (MEDSCOPE) [CVC]
  22. Mezzina, B., J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé, F.M. Palmeiro, L. Batté, C. Ardilouze, M. Benassi and S. Gualdi (2022). Multi-model assessment of the late-winter extra-tropical response to El Niño and La Niña. Climate Dynamics, 58, 1965–1986, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05415-y. Open Access (MEDSCOPE). [CVC]
  23. Mezzina, B., F.M. Palmeiro, J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé, L. Batté and M. Benassi (2022). Multi-model assessment of the late-winter stratospheric response to El Niño and La Niña. Climate Dynamics, 58, 1987–2007, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05836-3. Open Access (MEDSCOPE). [CVC]
  24. Michel, S., D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, P. Ortega, G. Gastineau, G.McCarthy, M. Khodri (2022). Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. Nature Communications, 13, 5176, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3. (RyC_Portega) [CVC]
  25. Moreno-Chamarro, E., L.-P. Caron, S. Loosveldt Tomas, J. Vegas-Regidor, O. Gutjahr, M.-P. Moine, D. Putrasahan, C.D. Roberts, M.J. Roberts, R. Senan, L. Terray, E. Tourigny and P.L. Vidale (2022). Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models. Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 269–289, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, IS-ENES3, SPFireSD, CMUG-CCI3-TECHPROP, STREAM) [CVC]
  26. Moreno-Chamarro, E. (2022). Delayed recovery of the tropical rain belt. Nature Climate Change, 12, 9–10, doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01237-w. [CVC]
  27. Orihuela-García, M. A., Bolado-Penagos, M., Sala, I., Tovar-Sánchez, A., García, C. M., Bruno, M., Echevarría, F. & Laiz, I. (2022). Trace metals distribution between the surface waters of the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea. Science of The Total Environment, 159662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159662 [CVC]
  28. Ortega, P., E.W. Blockley, M. Køltzow, F. Massonnet, I. Sandu, G. Svensson, J.C. Acosta Navarro, G. Arduini, L. Batté, E. Bazile, M. Chevallier, R. Cruz-García, J.J. Day, T. Fichefet, D. Flocco, M. Gupta, K. Hartung, E. Hawkins, C. Hinrichs, L. Magnusson, E. Moreno-Chamarro, S. Pérez-Montero, L. Ponsoni, T. Semmler, D. Smith, J. Sterlin, M. Tjernström, I. Välisuo and T. Jung (2022). Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(10), E2203-E2213, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0083.1.​ Open Access (APPLICATE, RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  29. Pelletier, C., T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, K. Haubner, S. Helsen, P.-V. Huot, C. Kittel, F. Klein, S. Le clec'h, N. P. M. van Lipzig, S. Marchi, F. Massonnet, P. Mathiot, E. Moravveji, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, F. Pattyn, N. Souverijns, G. Van Achter, S. Vanden Broucke, A. Vanhulle, D. Verfaillie and L. Zipf (2022). PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully-coupled ice-sheet - ocean - sea-ice - atmosphere - land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSMO5.0 and CLM4.5. Geoscience Model Development, 15, 553–594, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022. Open Access (PARAMOUR) [CVC]
  30. Simon, A., G. Gastineau, C. Frankignoul, V. Lapin and P. Ortega (2022). Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in winter. Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-69. Open Access (RyC_Portega, APPLICATE, INTAROS) [CVC]
  31. Simon A, S. M. Plecha, A. Russo, A. Teles-Machado, M. G. Donat, P.-A. Auger and R. M. Trigo (2022). Hot and cold marine extreme events in the Mediterranean over the period 1982-2021. [CVC] Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, 892201, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.892201 Open Access
  32. Smith, D., R. Eade, M. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. Dunstone, J. Garcia-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. S. Graff, S. C. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson, T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R. Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun and A. Walsh (2022). Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nature Communications, 13, 727, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y Open Access (APPLICATE, RyC_Pablo) [CVC]
  33. Solaraju-Murali, B., D. Bojovic, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, A. Nicodemou, M. Terrado, L.-P. Caron and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2022). How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector. Climate Services, 27, 100303, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100303. Open Access (MED-GOLD, EUCP, FOCUS-Africa, C3C_34c, La Caixa-Bala) [CVC]

2-0046.1.xml|Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0046.1]]. Open Access

  1. von Salzen, K., C.H. Whaley, S.C., Anenberg, R.V. Dingenen, Z. Klimont, M.G. Flanner, R. Mahmood, S.R. Arnold, S. Beagley, R.-Y. Chien, J.H. Christensen, S. Eckhardt, A.M.L. Ekman, N. Evangeliou, G. Faluvegi, J.S. Fu, M. Gauss, W. Gong, J.L. Hjorth, U. Im, S. Krishnan, K. Kupiainen, T. Kühn, J. Langner, K.S. Law, L. Marelle, D. Olivié, T. Onishi, N. Oshima, V.-V. Paunu, Y. Peng, D. Plummer, L. Pozzoli, S. Rao, J.-C. Raut, M. Sand, J. Schmale, M. Sigmond, M. A. Thomas, K. Tsigaridis, S. Tsyro, S.T. Turnock, M. Wang and B. Winter (2022). Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming. Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 222, doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00555-x. Open Access. [CVC]
  2. Whaley, C. H., R. Mahmood, K. von Salzen et al. (2022). Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, doi:10.5194/acp-2021-975. Open Access [CVC]
  3. White, S., E. Moreno-Chamarro, D. Zanchettin, H. Huhtamaa, D. Degroot, M. Stoffel and C. Corona (2022). The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region. Climate of the Past, 18, 739–757, doi:10.5194/cp-18-739-2022. Open Access (STREAM, PARAMOUR) [CVC]

2021

  1. Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor (2021). Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 173-196, doi:10.5194/esd-2020-66. Open Access (EUCP, APPLICATE, INTAROS, CLINSA, PARAMOUR, ESA/CMUG, INADEC, SPFireSD, STARS_Simon, Beautriu de Pinos, JdlC_Juan, FPU, RyC_Markus, RyC_Pablo)
  2. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra (2021). Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y. Open Access (RyC_Pablo, EUCP)
  3. Contractor, S., M.G. Donat and L.V. Alexander (2021). Changes in observed daily precipitation over global land areas since 1950. Journal of Climate, 34, 3-19, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0965.1. (RyC_Markus)
  4. Cruz-García, R., P. Ortega, V. Guemas, J. Acosta-Navarro, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2021). An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth. Climate Dynamics, 56, 1799-1813, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4. (APPLICATE)
  5. Della Penna, A., J. Llort, S. Moreau, R. Patel, R. Kloser, P. Gaube, P.G. Strutton and P. Boyd (2021). The impact of a Southern Ocean cyclonic eddy on mesopelagic micronekton. Earth and Space Science Open Archive, doi:10.1002/essoar.10507935.1. (MESH-STARS J.Llort)
  6. Deroubaix, A., I. Labuhn, M. Camredon, B. Gaubert, P.-A. Monerie, M. Popp, J. Ramarohetra, Y. Ruprich-Robert, L.G. Silvers and G. Siour (2021). Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change. Nature Communications, 12, 5197, doi:0.1038/s41467-021-25504-8. Open Access
  7. Dunn, R., C. Lief, G. Peng, W. Wright, O. Baddour, M. Donat, B. Dubuisson, J.-F. Legeais, P. Siegmund, R. Silveira, X.L. Wang and M Ziese (2021). Stewardship maturity assessment tools for modernization of climate data management. Data Science Journal, 20, 7, doi:10.5334/dsj-2021-007. Open Access (RyC_Markus)
  8. Exarchou, E., P. Ortega, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, T. Losada, I. Polo and C. Prodhomme (2021). Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill. Nature Communications, 12, 1612, doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2. Open Access (PREFACE, TRIATLAS)
  9. Hariadi, M. H., G. van der Schrier, G.-J. Steeneveld, A. Sopaheluwakan, A. K. Tank, M. J. Roberts, M.-P. Moine, A. Bellucci, R. Senan, E. Tourigny and D. Putrasahan (2021). Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in CMIP5 regional climate models and HighResMIP global climate models. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.7404. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, SPFireSD)
  10. Hegerl, G.C., A.P. Ballinger, B.B.B. Booth, L.F. Borchert, L. Brunner, M.G. Donat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G.R. Harris, J. Lowe, R. Mahmood, J. Mignot, J.M. Murphy, D. Swingedouw and A. Weisheimer (2021). Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections. Frontiers in Climate, 3, doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.678109. Open Access (EUCP)
  11. Im, U., K. Tsigaridis, G. Faluvegi, P. L. Langen, J. P. French, R. Mahmood, T. Manu, K. von Salzen, D. C. Thomas, C. H. Whaley, Z. Klimont, H. Skov, and J. Brandt (2021). Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21, 10413–10438, doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021. Open Access
  12. Jones, C.D., J. E. Hickman, S.T. Rumbold, J. Walton, R.D. Lamboll, R. B. Skeie, S. Fiedler, P.M. Forster, J. Rogelj, M. Abe, M. Botzet, K. Calvin, C. Cassou, J.N.S. Cole, P. Davini, M. Deushi, M. Dix, J.C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Kawamiya, M. Kelley, S. Kharin, T. Koshiro, H. Li, C. Mackallah, W.A. Müller, P. Nabat, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, R. Ohgaito, D. Olivié, N. Oshima, J. Parodi, T.J. Reerink, L. Ren, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, Y. Tang, C. Timmreck, J. Tjiputra, E. Tourigny, K. Tsigaridis, H. Wang, M. Wu, K. Wyser, S. Yang, Y. Yang and T. Ziehn (2021). The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID‐19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091883, doi:202110.1029/2020GL091883. Open Access (4C)
  13. Katja, W., L. Bock, B. K. Gier, A. Lauer, M. Righi, M. Schlund, K. Adeniyi, B. Andela, E. Arnone, P. Berg, L.P. Caron, I. Cionni, S. Corti, N. Drost, A. Hunter, L. Lledó, C. Wilhelm Mohr, A. Paçal, N. Pérez-Zanón, V. Predoi, M. Sandstad, J. Sillmann, A. Sterl, J. Vegas-Regidor, J. von Hardenberg and V. Eyring (2021). Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 3159–3184, doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-244.
  14. Kreussler, P., L-P. Caron, S. Wild, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, F. Chauvin, M-P. Moine, M.J. Roberts, Y. Ruprich-Robert, J. Seddon, S. Valcke, B. Vannière and P.L. Vidale (2021). Tropical cyclone integrated kinetic energy in an ensemble of HighResMIP simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090963, doi:10.1029/2020GL090963. (PRIMAVERA, STARS_Simon, JdlC_Simon)
  15. Levine, X.J., I. Cvijanovic, P. Ortega, M.G. Donat and E. Tourigny (2021). Atmospheric feedback explains disparate climate response to regional Arctic sea-ice loss. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 28, doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00183-w. Open Access (X. Levine STARS, I. Cvijanovic Beatriu de Pinos, RyC_Markus, RyC_Pablo, E. Tourigny SPFireSD, APPLICATE)
  16. Mahmood, R., M.G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2021). Constraining decadal variability yields skillful projections of near-term climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094915, doi:10.1029/2021GL094915. Open Access (EUCP, RyC_Pablo, RyC_Markus)
  17. Materia, S., C. Ardilouze, C. Prodhomme, M.G. Donat, M. Benassi, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Peano, L.-P. Caron, P. Ruggieri and S. Gualdi (2021). Summer temperature response to extreme soil water conditions in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05815-8. Open Access (MEDSCOPE)
  18. Meehl, G.A., J.H. Richter, H. Teng, A. Capotondi, K. Cobb, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M.G. Donat, M.H. England, J.C. Fyfe, W. Han, H. Kim, B.P. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, N.S. Lovenduski, M.E. Mann, W.J. Merryfield, V. Nieves, K. Pegion, N. Rosenbloom, S.C. Sanchez, A.A. Scaife, D. Smith, A.C. Subramanian, L. Sun, D. Thompson, C.C. Ummenhofer and S.-P. Xie (2021). Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, 340-357, doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x. (EUCP, RyC_Markus)
  19. Merryfield, W.J., J. Baehr, L. Batté, E.J. Becker, A.H. Butler, C.A. Coelho, G. Danabasoglu, P.A. Dirmeyer, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D.I. Domeisen, L. Ferranti, T. Ilynia, A. Kumar, W.A. Müller, M. Rixen, A.W. Robertson, D.M. Smith, Y. Takaya, M. Tuma, F. Vitart, C.J. White, M.S. Alvarez, C. Ardilouze, H. Attard, C. Baggett, M.A. Balmaseda, A.F. Beraki, P.S. Bhattacharjee, R. Bilbao, F.M. de Andrade, M.J. DeFlorio, L.B. Díaz, M.A. Ehsan, G. Fragkoulidis, S. Grainger, B.W. Green, M.C. Hell, J.M. Infanti, K. Isensee, T. Kataoka, B.P. Kirtman, N.P. Klingaman, J. Lee, K. Mayer, R. McKay, J.V. Mecking, D.E. Miller, N. Neddermann, C.H. Justin Ng, A. Ossó, K. Pankatz, S. Peatman, K. Pegion, J. Perlwitz, G.C. Recalde-Coronel, A. Reintges, C. Renkl, B. Solaraju-Murali, A. Spring, C. Stan, Y.Q. Sun, C.R. Tozer, N. Vigaud, S. Woolnough and S. Yeager (2021). Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction: Filling the Weather–Climate Gap. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, 767-770, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.A. Open Access
  20. Mezzina, B., J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé, F.M. Palmeiro, L. Batté, C. Ardilouze, M. Benassi and S. Gualdi (2021). Multi-model assessment of the late-winter extra-tropical response to El Niño and La Niña. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05415-y. Open Access (MEDSCOPE).
  21. Mezzina, B., F.M. Palmeiro, J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé, L. Batté and M. Benassi (2021). Multi-model assessment of the late-winter stratospheric response to El Niño and La Niña. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05836-3. Open Access (MEDSCOPE).
  22. Moreno-Chamarro, E., L.-P. Caron, P. Ortega, S. Loosveldt Tomas and M. Roberts (2021). Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation? Environmental Research Letters, 16, 054063, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a. Open Access (PRIMAVERA)
  23. Oliver, E.C.J., J.A. Benthuysen, S. Darmaraki, M.G. Donat, A.J. Hobday, N.J. Holbrook, R.W. Schlegel and A. Sen Gupta (2021). Marine heatwaves. Annual Review of Marine Science, 13, 313-342, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032720-095144. (RyC_Markus)
  24. Ortega, P., J.I. Robson, M. Menary, R.T. Sutton, A. Blaker, A. Germe, J.J.-M. Hirschi, B. Sinha, L. Hermanson and S. Yeager (2021). Labrador Sea sub-surface density as a precursor of multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 419-438, doi:10.5194/esd-2020-83. (RyC_Pablo)
  25. Pérez-Zanón, N., L.-P. Caron, S. Terzago, B. Van Schaeybroeck, L. Lledó, N. Manubens, E. Roulin, M.C. Alvarez-Castro, L. Batté, C. Delgado-Torres, M. Domínguez, J. von Hardenberg, E. Sánchez-García, V. Torralba and D. Verfaillie (2021). The CSTools (v4.0) toolbox: from climate forecasts to climate forecast information. Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-368. (MEDSCOPE, S2S4E, EUCP)
  26. Pyrina, M., E. Moreno-Chamarro, S. Wagner and E. Zorita (2021). Surface and tropospheric response of North Atlantic summer climate from paleoclimate simulations of the past millennium. Atmosphere, 12, 568, doi:10.3390/atmos12050568. Open Access
  27. Qasmi, S., E. Sanchez-Gomez, Y. Ruprich-Robert, J. Boe and C. Cassou (2021). Modulation of the occurrence of heat waves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Journal of Climate, 34, 1099-1114, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1. (INADEC)
  28. Ruggieri, P., A. Bellucci, D. Nicolì, P. Athanasiadis, S. Gualdi, C. Cassou, F. Castruccio, G. Danabasoglu, P. Davini, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, G. Gastineau, B. Harvey, L. Hermanson, S. Qasmi, Y. Ruprich-Robert, E. Sanchez-Gomez, D. Smith, S. Wild and M. Zampieri (2021). Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic jet: a multi-model view from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project. Journal of Climate, 34, 347-360, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0981.1. (INADEC, EUCP, STARS_Simon)
  29. Ruprich-Robert, Y., E. Moreno-Chamarro, X. Levine, A. Bellucci, C. Cassou, F. Castruccio, P. Davini, R. Eade, G. Gastineau, L. Hermanson, D. Hodson, K. Lohmann, J. Lopez-Parages, P.-A. Monerie, D. Nicolì, S. Qasmi, C. D. Roberts, E. Sanchez-Gomez, G. Danabasoglu, N. Dunstone, M. Martin-Rey, R. Msadek, J. Robson, D. Smith and E. Tourigny (2021). Impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on the Tropical Pacific: a multi-model study. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 33, doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5. Open Access (INADEC, EUCP, PRIMAVERA, STARS_Xavier)
  30. Sandu, I., F. Massonnet, G. van Achter, J. Acosta Navarro, G. Arduini, P. Bauer, E. Blockley, N. Bormann, M. Chevallier, J. Day, M. Dahoui, T. Fichefet, D. Flocco, T. Jung, E. Hawkins, S. Laroche, H. Lawrence, J. Kristianssen, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, E. Poan, L. Ponsoni and R. Randriamampianina (2021). The potential of numerical prediction systems to support the design of Arctic observing systems: Insights from the APPLICATE and YOPP projects. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147, 3863–387, doi:10.1002/qj.4182. (APPLICATE, RyC_Pablo)
  31. Seidenglanz, A., P. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, I. Cvijanovic, C. Li and S. Gualdi (2021). Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2687–2700, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05830-9. Open Access
  32. Solaraju-Murali, B., N. González-Reviriego, L.-P. Caron, A. Ceglar, A. Toreti, M. Zampieri, P.-A. Bretonniere, M. Samso Cabre and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2021). Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 34, doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00189-4. Open Access (C3S_34c, EUCP, MED-GOLD, FOCUS-Africa, CLINSA)
  33. Tang, W., J. Llort, J. Weis, M.M.G. Perron, S. Basart, Z. Li, S. Sathyedranath, T. Jackson, T., E. Sanz Rodriguez, B.C. Proemse, A.R. Bowie, C. Schallenberg, P.G. Strutton, R. Matear and N. Cassar (2021). Widespread phytoplankton blooms triggered by 2019–2020 Australian wildfires. Nature, 597, 370–375, doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03805-8. (MESH-STARS J.Llort)
  34. Verfaillie, D., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M.G. Donat, N. Pérez-Zanón, B. Solaraju-Murali, V. Torralba and S. Wild (2021). How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?. Journal of Climate, 34, 697-713, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0138.1. Open Access (EUCP, RyC_Markus, STARS_Simon)
  35. Volpi, D., V.L. Meccia, V. Guemas, P. Ortega, R. Bilbao, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Amaral, P. Echevarria, R. Mahmood and S. Corti (2021). A novel initialization technique for decadal climate predictions. Frontiers in Climate, doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.681127. Open Access (RyC Pablo)
  36. Weigel, K., L. Bock, B.K. Gier, A. Lauer, M. Righi, M. Schlund, K. Adeniyi, B. Andela, E. Arnone, P. Berg, L.-P. Caron, I. Cionni, S. Corti, N. Drost, A. Hunter, L. Lledó, C.W. Mohr, A. Paçal, N. Pérez-Zanón, V. Predoi, M. Sandstad, J. Sillmann, A. Sterl, J. Vegas-Regidor, J. von Hardenberg and V. Eyring (2021). Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation, and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 3159–3184, doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021. Open Access (C3S-MAGIC, C3S_34a_Lot_2)

2020

  1. Acosta Navarro, J.C., P. Ortega, L. Batté, D. Smith, P.A. Bretonnière, V. Guemas, F. Massonnet, V. Sicardi, V. Torralba, E. Tourigny and F.J. Doblas‐Reyes (2020). Link between autumnal Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086753, doi:10.1029/2019GL086753. (APPLICATE, PRIMAVERA, INTAROS, ESA/CMUG, Juan Acosta-JdlC, SPFireSD)
  2. Alexander, L.V., M. Bador, R. Roca, S. Contractor, M.G. Donat and P.L. Nguyen (2020). Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from in situ, space-based and reanalysis products. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 055002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e2. Open Access (RyC_Markus)
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  6. Carréric, A., B. Dewitte, W. Cai, A. Capotondi, K. Takahashi, S.-W. Yeh, G. Wang and V. Guemas (2020). Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Niño events dynamics in the warming climate. Climate Dynamics, 19, 2015–2061, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05036-0
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  8. Cvijanovic, I., J. Lukovic and J.D. Begg (2020). 100 years of Milankovic's cycles. Nature Geoscience, 13, 524–525, doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0621-2. (Ivana Cvijanovic's BP2017 grant).
  9. Dionne, J., K. von Salzen, J. Cole, R. Mahmood, W.R. Leaitch, G. Lesins, I. Folkins and R.Y.-W. Chang (2020). Modelling the relationship between liquid water content and cloud droplet number concentration observed in low clouds in the summer Arctic and its radiative effects. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 29-43, doi:10.5194/acp-20-29-2020. Open Access
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  11. Eyring, V., L. Bock, A. Lauer, M. Righi, M. Schlund, A. Andela, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, B. Brötz, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, B. Crezee, E. Davin, P. Davini, K. Debeire, L. de Mora, C. Deser, D. Docquier, P. Earnshaw, C. Ehbrecht, B.K. Gier, N. González-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, S. Hardiman, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, N. Koldunov, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, B. Müller, A. Pandde, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, V. Predoi, J. Russell, A. Sellar, F. Serva, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, J. Vegas-Regidor, J. von Hardenberg, K. Weigel and K. Zimmermann (2020). ESMValTool v2.0 - Extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 3383-3438, doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-291. Open Access (MAGIC, PRIMAVERA, CMUG)
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  13. Fučkar, N.S, F.E.L. Otto, F. Lehner, I. Pinto, E. Howard, S. Sparrow, S. Li and D. Wallom (2020). On high precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 101, S47-S52, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0162.1. Open Access
  14. Garcia-Villada, L.P., M.G. Donat, O. Angélil and A.S. Taschetto (2020). Temperature and precipitation responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a hierarchy of datasets with different levels of observational constraints. Climate Dynamics, 55, 2351-2376. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05389-x.
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  16. Haarsma, R., M. Acosta, R. Bakhshi, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, S. Corti, P. Davini, E. Exarchou, F. Fabiano, U. Fladrich, R. Fuentes Franco, J. García-Serrano, J. von Hardenberg, T. Koenigk, X. Levine, V. Meccia, T. van Noije, G. van den Oord, F.M. Palmeiro, M. Rodrigo, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P. Le Sager, E. Tourigny, S. Wang, M. van Weele and K. Wyser (2020). HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR. Description, model performance, data handling and validation. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 3507-3527, doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-350. Open Access (PRIMAVERA INADEC)
  17. Hayashida, H., G. Carnat, M. Galí, A.H. Monahan, E. Mortenson, T. Sou and N. S. Steiner (2020). Spatio‐temporal variability in modelled bottom‐ice and sea‐surface dimethylsulfide concentrations and fluxes in the Arctic during 1979‐2015. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34, e2019GB006456, doi:10.1029/2019GB006456.
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  19. Hernández, A., C. Martin-Puertas, P. Moffa-Sánchez, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, S. Blockley, K.M. Cobb, L. Comas-Bru, S. Giralt, H. Goosse, J. Luterbacher, B. Martrat, R. Muscheler, A. Parnell, S. Pla-Rabes, J. Sjolte, A.A. Scaife, D. Swingedouw, E. Wise and G. Xu (2020). Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene. Earth-Science Reviews, 209, 103286, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286.
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  22. Klotzbach, P.J., L.-P. Caron and M. Bell (2020). A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction. Geophysical Reearch Letters, 47, e2020GL089357, doi:10.1029/2020GL089357. Severo Ochoa
  23. Koenigk, T., R. Fuentes-Franco, V.L. Meccia, O. Gutjahr, L.C. Jackson, A.L. New, P. Ortega, C. Roberts, M. Roberts, T. Arsouze, D. Iovino, M.-P. Moine, and D.V. Sein (2021) Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models. Climate Dynamics, 57, 1895–1918, doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05785-x. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, RyC_Pablo).
  24. Lauer, A., V. Eyring, O. Bellprat, L. Bock, B.K. Gier, A. Hunter, R. Lorenz, N. Pérez-Zanón, M. Righi, M. Schlund, D. Senftleben, K. Weigel and S. Zechlau (2020). Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for emergent constraints and future projections from Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 4205-4228, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020. Open Access (CRESCENDO; C3S MAGIC; 4C; EVal4CMIP; IS-ENES3)
  25. Massicotte, P., R. Amiraux, M.P. Amyot, P. Archambault, M. Ardyna, L. Arnaud, L. Artigue, C. Aubry, P. Ayotte, G. Bécu, S. Bélanger, R. Benner, H.C. Bittig, A. Bricaud, É. Brossier, F. Bruyant, L. Chauvaud, D. Christiansen-Stowe, H. Claustre, V. Cornet-Barthaux, P. Coupel, C. Cox, A. Delaforge, T. Dezutter, C. Dimier, F. Dominé, F. Dufour, C. Dufresne, D. Dumont, J. Ehn, B. Else, J. Ferland, M.-H. Forget, L. Fortier, M. Galí, V. Galindo, M. Gallinari, N. Garcia, C. Gérikas-Ribeiro, M. Gourdal, P. Gourvil, C. Goyens, P.-L. Grondin, P. Guillot, C. Guilmette, M.-N. Houssais, F. Joux, L. Lacour, T. Lacour, A. Lafond, J. Lagunas, C. Lalande, J. Laliberté, S. Lambert-Girard, J. Larivière, J. Lavaud, A. LeBaron, K. Leblanc, F. Le Gall, J. Legras, M. Lemire, M. Levasseur, E. Leymarie, A. Leynaert, A. Lopes Dos Santos, A. Lourenço, D. Mah, C. Marec, D. Marie, N. Martin, C. Marty, S. Marty, G. Massé, A. Matsuoka, L. Matthes, B. Moriceau, P.-E. Muller, C.J. Mundy, G. Neukermans, L. Oziel, C. Panagiotopoulos, J.-J. Pangazi, G. Picard, M. Picheral, F. Pinczon Du Sel, N. Pogorzelec, I. Probert, B. Queguiner, P. Raimbault, J. Ras, E. Rehm, E. Reimer, J.-F. Rontani, S. Rysgaard, B. Saint-Béat, M. Sampei, J. Sansoulet, S. Schmidt, R. Sempere, C. Sévigny, Y. Shen, M. Tragin, J.-É. Tremblay, D. Vaulot, G. Verin, F. Vivier, A. Vladoiu, J. Whitehead and M. Babin (2020). Green Edge ice camp campaigns: understanding the processes controlling the under-ice Arctic phytoplankton spring bloom Earth System Science Data, 12, 151–176, doi:10.5194/essd-12-151-2020 Open Access
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  28. Mezzina, B., J. García-Serrano, I. Bladé and F. Kucharski (2020). Dynamics of the ENSO teleconnection and NAO variability in the North Atlantic–European late winter. Journal of Climate, 33, 907-923, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0192.1.
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  32. Notz, D., J. Dörr, D.A. Bailey, E. Blockley, M. Bushuk, J.B. Debernard, E. Dekker, P. Derepentigny, D. Docquier, N.S. Fučkar, J.C. Fyfe, A. Jahn, M. Holland, E. Hunke, D. Iovino, N. Khosravi, F. Massonnet, G. Madec, S. O'Farrell, A. Petty, A. Rana, L. Roach, E. Rosenblum, C. Rousset, T. Semmler, J. Stroeve, B. Tremblay, T. Toyoda, H. Tsujino and M. Vancoppenolle (2020). Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086749, doi:10.1029/2019GL086749. Open Access (APPLICATE)
  33. Paik, S., S.‐K. Min, X. Zhang, M.G. Donat, A.D. King and Q. Sun ( 2020). Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, e2019GL086875, doi:10.1029/2019GL086875. (EUCP, RyC_Markus)
  34. Palmeiro, F.M., J. Garcia-Serrano, O. Bellprat, P.A. Bretonnière and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2020). Boreal winter stratospheric variability in EC-EARTH: High-top versus low-top. Climate Dynamics, 54, 3135–3150, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05162-0. (DANAE, PRIMAVERA, MEDSCOPE)
  35. Patel, R.S., J. Llort, P.G. Strutton, H.E. Phillips, S. Moreau, P.C. Pardo and A. Lenton (2020). The biogeochemical structure of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2020JC016115, doi:10.1029/2020JC016115. (UTASMANIA)
  36. Roberts, M.J., J. Camp, J. Seddon, P.L. Vidale, K. Hodges, B. Vanniere, J. Mecking, R. Haarsma, A. Bellucci, E. Scoccimarro, L.P. Caron, F. Chauvin, L. Terray, S. Valcke, M. Moine, D. Putrasahan, C. Roberts, R. Senan, C. Zarzycki and P. Ullrich (2020). Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33, 2557-2583, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0639.1. Open Access (PRIMAVERA)
  37. Roberts, M.J., J. Camp, J. Seddon, P.L. Vidale, K. Hodges, B. Vannière, J. Mecking, R. Haarsma, A. Bellucci, E. Scoccimarro, L.-P. Caron, F. Chauvin, L. Terray, S. Valcke, M.-P. Moine, D. Putrasahan, C.D., Roberts, R. Senan, C. Zarzycki, P. Ullrich, Y. Yamada, R. Mizuta, C. Kodama, D. Fu, Q. Zhang, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, H. Wang and L. Wu (2020). Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088662, doi:10.1029/2020GL088662. Open Access (PRIMAVERA)
  38. Roberts, M.J., L.C. Jackson, C.D. Roberts, V. Meccia, D. Docquier, T. Koenigk, P. Ortega, E. Moreno-Chamarro, A. Bellucci, A. Coward, S. Drijfhout, E. Exarchou, O. Gutjahr, H. Hewitt, D. Iovino, K. Lohmann, D. Putrasahan, R. Schiemann, J. Seddon, L. Terray, X. Xu, Q. Zhang, P. Chang, S.G. Yeager, F.S. Castruccio, S Zhang and L. Wu (2020). Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to model resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations and implications for future changes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS002014, doi:10.1029/2019MS002014. (PRIMAVERA)
  39. Rodríguez‐Ros, P., M. Galí, P. Cortés, C.M. Robinson, D. Antoine, C. Wohl, M. Yang and R. Simó (2020). Remote sensing retrieval of isoprene concentrations in the Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087888, doi:10.1029/2020GL087888.
  40. Santos, J.A., A.Ceglar, A. Toreti and C. Prodhomme (2020). Performance of seasonal forecasts of Douro and Port wine production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 291, 108095, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108095. (MEDGOLD, MEDSCOPE, HIATUS, IMPREX)
  41. Sen Gupta, A., M. Thomsen, J.A. Benthuysen, A.J. Hobday, E. Oliver, L.V. Alexander, M.T. Burrows, M.G. Donat, M. Feng, N.J. Holbrook, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, P.J. Moore, R.R. Rodrigues, H.A. Scannell, A.S. Taschetto, C.C. Ummenhofer, T. Wernberg and D.A. Smale (2020). Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events. Scientific Reports, 10, 19359, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3. Open Access (RyC_Markus)
  42. Smith, D.M., A.A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L.F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N.J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W.J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W.A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, P. Ruggieri, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, D. Swingedouw, Y. Wang, S. Wild, S. Yeager, X. Yang and L. Zhang (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583, 796-800, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0. (EUCP, CLINSA, PRACE,RyC_Pablo,STARS_Simon)
  43. Tsujino, H., L.S. Urakawa, S.M. Griffies, G. Danabasoglu, A.J. Adcroft, A.E. Amaral, T. Arsouze, M. Bentsen, R. Bernardello, C.W. Böning, A. Bozec, E.P. Chassignet, S. Danilov, R. Dussin, E. Exarchou, P.G. Fogli, B. Fox-Kemper, C. Guo, M. Ilicak, D. Iovino, W.M. Kim, N. Koldunov, V. Lapin, Y. Li, P. Lin, K. Lindsay, H. Liu, M.C. Long, Y. Komuro, S.J. Marsland, S. Masina, A. Nummelin, J.K. Rieck, Y. Ruprich-Robert, M. Scheinert, V. Sicardi, D. Sidorenko, T. Suzuki, H. Tatebe, Q. Wang, S.G. Yeager and Z. Yu (2020). Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2). Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 3643–3708, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020. Open Access (DeCUSO, CCiCC, INADEC, TRIATLAS)
  44. Turco, M., S. Jerez, M.G. Donat, A. Toreti, S.M. Vicente-Serrano and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2020). A global probabilistic dataset for monitoring meteorological droughts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101, E1628–E1644, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0192.1. Open Access (CLIM4CROP, RyC_Markus)
  45. Vannière, B., M. Roberts, P.L. Vidale, K. Hodges, M.E. Demory, L.-P. Caron, E. Scoccimarro, L. Terray and R. Senan (2020). The moisture budget of tropical cyclones: large scale environmental constraints and sensitivity to model horizontal resolution. Journal of Climate, 33, 8457–8474, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0999.1. (PRIMAVERA)
  46. Wood, K.M., P.J. Klotzbach, J.M. Collins, L.-P. Caron, R.E. Truchelut and C.J. Schreck (2020). Factors affecting the 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season and the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087781, doi:10.1029/2020GL087781.

2019

  1. Akhtar, N., A. Krug, J. Brauch, T. Arsouze, C. Dieterich and B. Ahrens (2019). European marginal seas in a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model and their impact on Vb-cyclones and associated precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 53, 5967-5984, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04906-x.
  2. Alexander, L. V., H. J. Fowler, Hayley, M. Bador, A. Behrangi, M. G. Donat, R. Dunn, C. Funk, J. Goldie, E. Lewis, M. Rogé, S. I. Seneviratne and V. Venugopal (2019). On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 125008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab51b6. Open Access (RyC_Markus)
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  41. Smale, D.A., T. Wernberg, E.C.J. Oliver, M. Thomsen, B.P. Harvey, S.C. Straub, M.T. Burrows, L.V. Alexander, J.A. Benthuysen, M.G. Donat, M. Feng, A.J. Hobday, N.J. Holbrook, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, H.A. Scannell, A. Sen Gupta, B.L. Payne and P.J. Moore (2019). Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. Nature Climate Change, 9, 306-312, doi:s41558-019-0412-1.
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  46. Spandre, P., H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George and S. Morin (2019). Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts. Scientific Reports, 9, 8043, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8. Open Access (EUCP)
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  54. Voldoire, A., E. Exarchou, E. Sanchez-Gomez, T. Demissie, A.L. Deppenmeier, C. Frauen, K. Goubanova, W. Hazeleger, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki, C. Prodhomme, J. Shonk, T. Toniazzo and A.K. Traoré (2019). Role of wind stress in driving SST biases in the Tropical Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 53, 3481–3504, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04717-0. Open Access (PREFACE)
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2018

  1. Acosta Navarro, J.C., P. Ortega, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, E. Tourigny, R. Cruz-García, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). December 2016: Linking the Lowest Arctic Sea-Ice Extent on Record with the Lowest European Precipitation Event on Record Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Explainig Extreme Events of 2017, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0097.1. Open Access
  2. Alexander-Turner, R., P. Ortega and J. Robson (2018). How robust are the surface temperature fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on monthly time-scales? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1-9, doi:10.1029/2017GL076759. Open Access
  3. Amores, A., G. Jordà, T. Arsouze and J. Le Sommer (2018). Up to what extent can we characterize ocean eddies using present‐day gridded altimetric products? Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2018JC014140.
  4. Baudouin, J.-P., L.-P. Caron and M. Boudreault (2018). Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled hurricane activity. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4352-7. (RESPONS, JdlC)
  5. Befort, D.J., S. Wild, J.R. Knight, J.F. Lockwood, H.E. Thornton, L. Hermanson, P.E. Bett, A. Weisheimer and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.3406. Open Access
  6. Butchart, N., J.A. Anstey, K. Hamilton, S. Osprey, C. McLandress, A.C. Bushell, Y. Kawatani, Y.-H. Kim, F. Lott, J. Scinocca, T.N. Stockdale, M. Andrews, O. Bellprat, P. Braesicke, C. Cagnazzo, C.-C. Chen, H.-Y. Chun, M. Dobrynin, R.R. Garcia, J. García-Serrano, L.J. Gray, L. Holt, T. Kerzenmacher, H. Naoe, H. Pohlmann, J.H. Richter, A.A. Scaife, V. Schenzinger, F. Serva, S. Versick, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida and S. Yukimoto (2018). Overview of experimental design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1009-1032, doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-187. Open Access (DANAE)
  7. Caron, L.-P., L. Hermanson, A. Dobbin, J. Imbers, L. Lledó and G.A. Vecchi (2018). How skilful are the multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 403-413, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0025.1. Open Access (RESPONS, PREFACE, JdlC)
  8. Ceglar, A., A. Toreti, C. Prodhomme, M. Zampieri, M. Turco and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast. Scientific Reports, 8, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-19586-6. Open Access (IMPREX)
  9. Donat, M.G., A.J. Pitman and O. Angelil (2018). Understanding and reducing future uncertainty in midlatitude daily heat extremes via land surface feedback constraints. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 10,627-10,636, doi:10.1029/2018GL079128
  10. Exarchou, C. Prodhomme, L. Brodeau, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas‐Reyes (2018). Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model Climate Dynamics, 51, 1819-1840, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3984-3. (PREFACE)
  11. Fučkar, N.S., V. Guemas, N.C. Johnson and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4318-9. (PICA-ICE, SPECS, PRIMAVERA)
  12. Kimmritz, M., F. Counillon, C.M. Bitz, F. Massonnet, I. Bethke and Y. Gao (2018). Optimising assimilation of sea ice concentration in an Earth system model with a multicategory sea ice model. Tellus A, doi:10.1080/16000870.2018.1435945. Open Access
  13. King, M.P., I. Herceg-Bulic, I. Bladé, J. García-Serrano, N. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, C. Li and S. Sobolow (2018). Importance of late-fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 1337-1343, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0020.1. Open Access (DANAE)
  14. Lavender, S.L., K.J.E. Walsh, L.-P. Caron, M. King, S. Monkiewicz, M. Guishard, Q. Zhang and B. Hunt (2018). Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models. Science Advances, 4, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6509. Open Access (HIATUS, JdlC)
  15. Lledó, Ll., O. Bellprat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Soret (2018). Investigating the effects of Pacific sea surface temperatures on the wind drought of 2015 over the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 123, 4837-4849, doi: 10.1029/2017JD028019. (CLIM4ENERGY, S2S4E, INDECIS, EUCP, EUCLEIA)
  16. Mamadjanova, G., S. Wild, M. Walz and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). The role of synoptic processes in mudflow formation in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 2893-2919, doi: 10.5194/nhess-18-2893-2018. Open Access
  17. Manubens, N., L.-P. Caron, A. Hunter, O. Bellprat, E. Exarchou, N.S. Fučkar, J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Massonnet, M. Ménégoz, V. Sicardi, L. Batté, C. Prodhomme, V. Torralba, N. Cortesi, O. Mula-Valls, K. Serradell, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). An R package for climate forecast verification. Environmental Modelling & Software, 103, 29-42, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.01.018. (SPECS, EUCLEIA, PREFACE, EUPORIAS, QA4Seas, VERITAS-CCI)
  18. Massonnet, F., M. Vancoppenolle, H. Goosse, D. Docquier, T. Fichefet and E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (2018). Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes Nature Climate Change, 8, 599-603, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z. (APPLICATE, PRIMAVERA)
  19. Mavilia, I., B. Alessio, P. J. Athanasiadis, S. Gualdi, R. Msadek and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2018). On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4093-7.
  20. McGee, D., E. Moreno-Chamarro, J. Marshall and E.D. Galbraith (2018). Western US lake expansions during Heinrich stadials linked to Pacific Hadley circulation. Science advances, 4, eaav011, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav0118. Open Access
  21. Ménégoz, M., R. Bilbao, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 064022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4db. Open Access (VOLCADEC, HIATUS, SPECS)
  22. Ménégoz, M., C. Cassou, D. Swingedouw, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P.-A. Bretonnière and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2018). Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. Climate Dynamics, 51, 1863-1883, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3986-1. (SPECS, VOLCADEC)
  23. Messori, G., D. van Wees, F.S.R. Pausata, J.C. Acosta Navarro, A. Hannachi and F.J. Dentener (2018) The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM2.5 concentrations. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, doi:10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704. Open Access
  24. Mishra, N., C. Prodhomme and V. Guemas (2018). Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z. (IMPREX)
  25. Neukermans, G., T. Harmel, M. Galí , N. Rudorff, J. Chowdhary, O. Dubovik, C. Hostetler, Y. Hu, C. Jamet, K. Knobelspiesse, Y. Lehahn, P. Litvinov, A.M. Sayer, B. Ward, E. Boss, I. Koren and L.A. Miller (2018). Harnessing remote sensing to address critical science questions on ocean-atmosphere interactions. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, doi:10.1525/elementa.331. Open Access
  26. Ruprich-Robert, Y., T. Delworth, R. Msadek, F. Castruccio, S. Yeager and D. Danabasoglu (2018). Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American summer climate and heat waves. Journal of Climate, 31, 3679-3700, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0270.1.
  27. Saurral, R.I., F.J. Doblas-Reyes and J. García-Serrano (2018). Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1129-1143, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3666-1. (SPECS, DPETNA)
  28. Smith, D.M., A.A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G.J. Boer, M. Caian, L.‐P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F.J. Doblas‐Reyes, R. Doescher, N.J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W.J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W.A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra‐Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang and S. Yeager (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5ºC. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11,895-11,903, doi:10.1029/2018GL079362. Open Access (EUCP, CLINSA, HIATUS)
  29. Thornalley, D., D.W. Oppo, P. Ortega, J.I. Robson, C.M. Brierley, R. Davis, I.R Hall, P. Moffa-Sanchez, N.L. Rose, P.T. Spooner, I. Yashayaev and L.D. Keigwin (2018). Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556, 227-230, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0007-4.
  30. Uotila, P., H. Goosse, K. Haines, M. Chevallier, A. Barthélemy, C. Bricaud, J. Carton, N. Fučkar, G. Garric, D. Iovino, F. Kauker, M. Korhonen, V.S. Lien, M. Marnela, F. Massonnet, D. Mignac, K.A. Peterson, R. Sadikni, L. Shi, S. Tietsche, T. Toyoda, J. Xie and Z. Zhang (2018). An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z. (APPLICATE)
  31. Vautard, R., N. Christidis, A. Ciavarella, C. Alvarez-Castro, O. Bellprat, B. Christiansen, I. Colfescu, T. Cowan, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, J. Eden, M. Hauser, G. Hegerl, N. Hempelmann, K. Klehmet, F. Lott, C. Nangini, R. Orth, S. Radanovics, S. I. Seneviratne, G. Jan van Oldenborgh, P. Stott, S. Tett, L. Wilcox and P. Yiou (2018). Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6. (EUCLEIA)
  32. Vial, J., C. Cassou, F. Codron, S. Bony and Y. Ruprich-Robert (2018). Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the tropical climate response to CO2 forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2018GL078558.
  33. Walz, M.A., M.G. Donat and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). Large‐scale drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2017JD027958. Open Access

2017

  1. Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. Müller and C. Prodhomme (2017). Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3959-397, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7. (SPECS, IMPREX, Severo Ochoa)
  2. Bellprat, O., F. Massonnet, S. Siegert, C. Prodhomme, D. Macias-Gómez, V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Uncertainty propagation in observational references to climate model scales. Remote Sensing of the Environment, 203, 101-108, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.06.034. (SPECS, VERITAS-CCI, EUCLEIA)
  3. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., A. Barthélemy, M. Chevallier, R. Cullather, N. Fučkar, F. Massonnet, P. Posey, W. Wang, J. Zhang, C. Ardilouze, C.M. Bitz, G. Vernieres, A. Wallcraft and M. Wang (2017). Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1399-1410, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9. (PICA-ICE, JdC)
  4. Boudreault, M., L.-P. Caron and S. Camargo (2017). Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research A, 122, 4258-4280, doi:10.1002/2016JD026103. (RESPONS)
  5. Docquier, D., F. Massonnet, N.F. Tandon, O. Lecomte and T. Fichefet (2017). Arctic sea ice drift-strength feedback modelled by NEMO-LIM3.6. The Cryosphere, 11, 2829-2846, doi:10.5194/tc-2017-60. Open Access (PRIMAVERA)
  6. García-Serrano, J., C. Frankignoul, M.P. King, A. Arribas, Y. Gao, V. Guemas, D. Matei, R. Msadek, W. Park, and E. Sanchez-Gomez (2017). Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2407-2429, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3. (NACLIM, DPETNA, Severo.Ochoa)
  7. García-Serrano, J., C. Cassou, H. Douville, A. Giannini and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Revisiting the ENSO teleconnection to the tropical North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 30, 6945-6957, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0641.1. Open Access (DPETNA)
  8. García-Serrano, J. and R.J. Haarsma (2017). Non-annular, hemispheric signature of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 48, 3659-3670, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3292-3. (DPETNA)
  9. Gastineau, G., J. García-Serrano and C. Frankignoul (2017). The influence of autumnal Eurasian snow cover on climate and its link with Arctic sea ice cover. Journal of Climate, 30, 7599-7619, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0623.1. (NACLIM, DPETNA)
  10. Siegert, S., D. Stephenson, O. Bellprat, M. Ménégoz and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Detecting improvements in forecast correlation skill: Statistical testing and power analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 437-450, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0037.1. (SPECS, VERITAS)
  11. Swingedouw, D., J. Mignot, P. Ortega, M. Khodri, M. Ménégoz, C. Cassou and V. Hanquiez (2017). Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes. Global and Planetary Change, 150, 24-45, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.01.006. (VOLCADEC)
  12. Turco, M., A. Ceglar, C. Prodhomme, A. Soret, A. Toreti and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 84006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859. Open Access (IMPREX, SPECS)
  13. Volpi, D., V. Guemas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins and N. Nichols (2017). Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach. Climate Dynamics, 48, 1841-1853, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3176-6. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  14. Volpi, D., V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2017). Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1181-1195, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3373-3. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)

2016

  1. Bellprat, O. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 2158-2164, doi:10.1002/2015GL067189. (VERITAS-CCI, EUCLEIA)
  2. Bellprat, O., Massonnet, F., García-Serrano, J., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., and F. Doblas-Reyes (2016). The role of Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures on the cold 2015 February over North America. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 97, S36-S41, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0159.1. Open Access (EUCLEIA, SPECS, PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  3. Camp, J. and L.-P. Caron (2016). Analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclone landfall forecasts in coupled GCMs on seasonal and decadal timescales. In Hurricanes and Climate Change, 3rd edition, Springer. (RESPONS, SPECS)
  4. Carrassi, A., V. Guemas, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Volpi and M. Asif (2016). Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction. Part I: Generating initial conditions. Climate Dynamics, 47, 3693-3712, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4. (INCLIDA, SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  5. Day, J., S. Tietsche, M. Collins, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, A. Guillory, W. Hurlin, M. Ishii, S. Keeley, D. Matei, R. Msadek, M. Sigmond, H. Tatebe and E. Hawkins (2016). The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1. Geoscientific Model Devevelopment Discussions, 9, 2255-2270, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  6. Favier, V., D. Verfaillie, E. Berthier, M. Ménégoz, V. Jomelli, J.E. Kay, L. Ducret, Y. Malbéteau, D. Brunstein, H. Gallée, Y.H. Park and V. Rinterknecht (2016). Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean. Scientific Reports, 6, 32396, doi:10.1038/srep32396. Open access
  7. Fučkar, N.S., V. Guemas, N.C. Johnson, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1527-1543, doi:10.​1007/​s00382-015-2917-2. (PICA-ICE, SPECS)
  8. Fučkar, N.S, F. Massonnet, V. Guemas, J. García-Serrano, O. Bellprat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Acosta (2016). Record low northern hemisphere sea ice extent in March 2015. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 97, S136-S140, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0153.1. Open Access (EUCLEIA, SPECS, PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  9. García-Serrano, J. and C. Frankignoul (2016). On the feedback of the winter NAO-driven sea ice anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1601-1612, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2922-5. (NACLIM, DPETNA)
  10. Guemas, V., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, M. Chevallier, J.J. Day, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N. Fučkar, A. Germe, E. Hawkins, S. Keeley, T. Koenigk, D. Salas y Mélia and S. Tietsche (2016). A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 546-561, doi:10.1002/qj.2401. (SPECS, PICA-ICE)
  11. Guemas, V., M. Chevallier, M. Déqué, O. Bellprat and F.J. Doblas‐Reyes (2016). Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 3889-3896, doi:10.1002/2015GL066626. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, VERITAS-CCI)
  12. Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 (2016) Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 4185-4208, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016. Open Access (PRIMAVERA, JdC)
  13. King, M. P. and J. García-Serrano (2016). Potential ocean-atmosphere preconditioning of late autumn Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly. Tellus A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68, 28580, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v68.28580. Open Access (DPETNA, Severo Ochoa)
  14. Krikken, F., M. Schmeits, W. Vlot, V. Guemas and W. Hazeleger (2016). Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5124-5132, doi:10.1002/2016GL068462.
  15. Manubens-Gil, D., J. Vegas-Regidor, C. Prodhomme, O. Mula-Valls and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Seamless management of ensemble climate prediction experiments on HPC platforms. Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on High Performance Computing & Simulation (HPCS), Innsbruck, 895-900, doi:10.1109/HPCSim.2016.7568429 . (SPECS, IS-ENES2)
  16. Massonnet, F., O. Bellprat, V. Guemas and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets. Science, 6311, 452-455, doi:10.1126/science.aaf6369. (FNRS, SPECS, PICA-ICE, EUCLEIA, VERITAS, CMUG, RES).
  17. Mignot, J., J. García-Serrano, D. Swingedouw, A. Germe, S. Nguyen, P. Ortega, E. Guilyardi and S. Ray (2016). Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1225-1246, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1. (SPECS, NACLIM)
  18. Prodhomme, C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, O. Bellprat and E. Dutra (2016). Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 47, 919-935, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4. (SPECS, DENFREE, EUCLEIA, MINECO CGL2013-41055-R)
  19. Prodhomme, C., L. Batté, F. Massonnet, P. Davini, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas, and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2016). Benefits of increasing the model resolution for the seasonal forecast quality in EC-Earth. Journal of Climate, 29, 9141-9162, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1. (SPECS, EUCLEIA, PREFACE, PRIMAVERA, IMPREX, VERITAS)

2015

  1. Barth, A., M. Canter, B. Van Schaeybroeck, S. Vannitsem, F. Massonnet, V. Zunz, P. Mathiot, A. Alvera-Azcárate and J.-M. Beckers (2015). Assimilation of sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and sea ice drift in a model of the Southern Ocean. Ocean Modelling, 93, 22-39, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.011. (FNRS)
  2. Bellprat, O., F.C. Lott, C. Gulizia, H.R. Parker, L. Pampuch, I. Pinto, A. Ciavarella and P.A. Stott (2015). Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 36-46, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001. (EUCLEIA) Open Access
  3. Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and C.L. Bruyere (2015). Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 44, 1801-1821, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5. (SPECS)
  4. Caron, L.-P., L. Hermanson and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 2417-2425, doi:10.1002/2015GL063303. (RPI2.0-2013-CARON, SPECS)
  5. Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and S.J. Camargo (2015). On the variability and predictability of Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 28, 9678-9696, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0377.1. (SPECS, RESPONS)
  6. García-Serrano, J., C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau and A. de la Cámara (2015). On the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate: lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate, 28, 5195-5216, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00472.1. (NACLIM, EMBRACE)
  7. García-Serrano, J., V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2539-2555, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7. (SPECS)
  8. Goessling, H., T. Jung, S. Klebe J. Baeseman, P. Bauer, P. Chen, M. Chevallier, R. Dole, N. Gordon, P. Ruti, A. Bradley, D. Bromwich, B. Casati, D. Chechin, J. Day, F. Massonnet, B. Mills, I. Renfrew, G. Smith and R. Tatusko (2015). Paving the way for the year of Polar Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, ES85-ES88, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00270.1. (FNRS)
  9. Guemas, V., J. García-Serrano, A. Mariotti, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and L.-P. Caron (2015). Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 580-597, doi:10.1002/qj.2379. (SPECS, CLIM-RUN, QWeCI, RUCSS)
  10. Jung, T., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, C. Bitz, C. Buontempo, R. Caballero, E. Jakobson, J. Jungclaus, M. Karcher, T. Koenigk, D. Matei, J. Overland, T. Spengler and S. Yang (2015). Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, ES197-ES200, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00121.1. (SPECS) Open Access
  11. Massonnet, F. (2015). Communicating climate complexity. Commentary in Physics Today, 68, 8, doi:10.1063/PT.3.2894. (SPECS, FNRS)
  12. Massonnet, F., V. Guemas, N. Fuckar and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). The 2014 high record of Antarctic sea ice extent. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 96, S163-S167, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00093.1. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, EUCLEIA, FNRS) Open Access
  13. Pepler, A.S., L.B. Díaz, C. Prodhomme, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Kumar (2015). The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 68-77, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005. (SPECS, EUCLEIA)
  14. Prodhomme, C., P. Terray, S. Masson, G. Boschat and T. Izumo (2015). Oceanic factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 977-1002, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2200-y.
  15. Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., E. Mohino, C.R. Mechoso, C. Caminade, M. Biasutti, M. Gaetani, J. García-Serrano, E.K. Vizy, K. Cook, Y. Xue, I. Polo, T. Losada, L. Druyan, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, L. Goddard, S. Janicot, A. Arribas, W. Lau, A. Colman, M. Vellinga, D.P. Rowell, F. Kucharski and A. Voldoire (2015). Variability and predictability of west African droughts: A review of the role of sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, 28, 4034-4060, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1. (SPECS)
  16. Stroeve, J., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, V. Guemas, S. Howell, F. Massonnet and S. Tietsche (2015). Improving predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. EOS, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO031431. (SPECS, PICA-ICE, FNRS)
working_groups/climate_prediction/publications.1762209832.txt.gz · Last modified: 2025/11/03 22:43 by portega

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